One of the most senior and important remaining figures in Iran, National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani, was eliminated by Israel.
Larijani’s death was confirmed by Defense Minister Israel Katz on March 17. This comes days after he and other regime members had appeared in public during Friday’s Quds Day events. Larijani was rumored to be one of the Tehran regime’s figures who might assume leadership after Israeli and US strikes on February 28 killed other regime officials, including supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Israel also targeted the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Basij paramilitary militia, Gholamreza Soleimani, and his deputy, Seyyed Karishi.
Larijani, at age 67, was a key regime official and an institution unto himself in Iran. His star had been rising for years.
He had been sent by Tehran on several key foreign visits prior to the beginning of the war. He traveled to Russia, for instance. Moscow has not been as supportive of Iran as the regime would have liked.
This indicates that Larijani's death will leave a major gap in the regime, as he had served as a key figure for so long.
The death of Khamenei was felt differently because he was a symbolic head of state as well as the final decision-maker. Larijani was more of a behind-the-scenes player, not always at the forefront, but he could navigate the halls of power.
Iran’s regime is complex. Its president is not very powerful. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is the real power behind the throne.
Israel has already killed numerous key officials in this war, as well as in the June 12 Day War. Thus, Iran has become used to replacing some key people. However, there could be a breaking point.
Larijani comes from prominent political, religious family
Larijani was important, as was his family. The Larijani family is from Damavand in northern Iran, and he was born in Najaf, Iraq, in 1957, when his father was working there. His family network is important within the Iranian regime, and it has inserted itself in what one Turkish media outlet called an “influential web of power intersected across the upper echelon of the regime.”
The report from the Jordanian think tank notes that “Larijani’s father, grand ayatollah Mirza Hashem Amoli, was a respected jurist, granting his sons early scholarly legitimacy. His brothers have occupied influential positions [notably] Sadeq Larijani, a jurist and former head of the judiciary, as well as a member of key constitutional bodies and [who was] at times mentioned among potential successors to supreme leader Ali Khamenei.”
It then notes that “Larijani holds a PhD in philosophy, a background reflected in his political style, measured rhetoric, deliberative decision-making, and preference for layered solutions.”
Larijani attempted to run for president but was unsuccessful.
He was also a key player in the 25-year deal between Iran and China. Similar to its maneuvering with Russia, Iran found that China has not been very supportive in this war. China and Russia are waiting on the sidelines. Thus, Larijani’s work with these key countries actually did not produce the results he intended.
Larijani had a long pedigree in regime bureaucracy and the history. He was an officer in the IRGC during the Iran-Iraq War. Later, as he rose in the bureaucracy, he served as the culture and Islamic guidance minister in the 1990s and also ran an Iranian state broadcaster. He later worked directly with the late Khamenei on the Supreme National Security Council and served as speaker of parliament.
In addition, he previously played a role in Iran’s policy in Europe. This was another failure of Iran’s long-term agenda.
Larijani could therefore be seen as a key regime figure who also failed to position Iran strongly on the international stage. As such, his apparent death could be seen as a kind of “culling” of the herd – the removal of a big beast from Iran’s apparatchik class of aging leaders.
Turkey’s TRT noted in 2022 that “when Hassan Rouhani rose to power in 2013, Ali Larijani did everything he could to help the new president’s agenda. He famously gave the 290 members of the Majlis only 20 minutes to discuss the 2015 nuclear agreement that Rouhani’s government had reached with world powers. Even with Rouhani out of the office and the Majlis controlling the hardline faction, Ali Larijani chose to stay in the political power’s center.”
Larijani’s death could weaken the regime, but it could also become the passing of yet another older figure and provide a vacuum for a new generation of IRGC men to take the reins and decide what to do next.
Larijani came of age as Iran’s Islamic revolution was gaining momentum. He guided the country when it was more of an international player. Now it is isolated and weakened. He may not have been well-suited to serve an isolated and weakened regime.