As the new year is ushered in, Iran is on the brink of collapse – this time for real. What makes the current moment so different is that one of the regime’s central arguments has been decisively exposed as false.
This moment is akin to a false prophet whose promises of salvation have been proven empty. The Islamic Republic’s government long justifies the extraordinary sacrifices demanded of its citizens – the blood and the economic hardship – as contributions to a higher purpose: the advancement of Islamist ideology capable of destroying Israel and challenging the West. But now the regime’s chickens are coming home to roost.
But the question remains: What is different now?
Israel’s systematic destruction of the ring of fire that Iran built around Israel, culminating in the 12-day war of June 2025 changed that equation. The Jewish state’s swift and decisive actions laid bare Tehran’s military weakness, undermining the regime’s narrative, and exposing it as a paper tiger.
The sacrifices that were supposed to secure a grand strategic vision now appear to have been for nothing. Iranians can see that the billions of dollars invested in regional proxies, missile programs, and ideological campaigns yielded no real gains. The argument that once tied loyal constituencies to the state has collapsed, eroding the foundation of support that once inoculated the regime from internal combustion.
The remaining question is what is the stance of the military? If Iran’s armed forces perceive that the ship is sinking and that the regime’s legitimacy has evaporated, they may reconsider their allegiance. Once that happens, historically, the fall of a regime will likely be swift.
As long as those elements existed, even a deeply unpopular regime could survive. It could organize counter-protests, mobilize civilians to enforce compliance, and leverage media and propaganda to project an image of legitimacy. For years, this system allowed the Islamic Republic to weather sanctions and internal dissent, even as millions of ordinary Iranians held deep animosity towards the regime.
But a shift has taken place that is making all the difference. This regime can no longer rely on its core constituency for support, and the military can no longer rely on future promises of success. This is precisely the situation that Iran is in.
Iranian President urges government to listen to protestors
The current wave of protests demonstrates this reality. Unlike in past uprisings, there is no substantial loyalist population left to resist demonstrators. Even President Masoud Pezeshkin publicly stated that the government should listen to the “legitimate demands” of protesters.
In another quote he says: “If the government fails to address the basic livelihood problems driving the unrest – especially economic hardship and declining living standards – then we will end up in hell.” A more damning admission would be hard to find. Streets are filled with ordinary citizens demanding change, without as much pushback that once slowed or halted revolts.
At this point, the only individuals who remain fully aligned with the government are those directly connected to its inner circle – clerics and Revolutionary Guard officials whose personal fortunes are tied to the state. Without the broader population or meaningful ideological justification, the Islamic Republic is now isolated and vulnerable.
For the first time in 47 years, since the 1979 revolution that established the Islamic regime, the pillars of survival that once guaranteed regime continuity are falling. The combination of popular revolt and potential military defection signals that Iran is on its last legs.
Iran today is fundamentally different from the Iran of the past. The regime’s ideological narrative has failed, its public support has eroded, and its military may no longer act against the people. The Islamic Republic is crumbling, and the prospect of regime change is higher than ever before.
The writer is the co-founder of Emissary4all and the co-host of the podcast Recalibration. You can reach him at dmr224@yahoo.com.