Saudi Arabia’s airstrike on a shipment of Emirati military equipment unloaded at Yemen’s port city of Mukalla was not just another episode in a country accustomed to war. It was an extraordinary act: one Gulf state striking the assets of another member of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), despite ostensibly normal relations. This kind of move usually points to something deeper. And that is exactly what seems to be happening in Riyadh.
According to Gulf sources, the Saudi royal family has made a strategic decision to distance the kingdom from the region’s more moderate Arab states and move closer to regimes and political movements identified with the Muslim Brotherhood. Such a shift would signal a dangerous change in the regional balance of power.
The Turkey-Qatar axis is already gaining strength. Unlike Iran and its proxies, it did not take major military blows from Israel during the Swords of Iron war (Israel’s official name for the post-October 7 campaign). It has also benefited politically from US President Donald Trump’s approach, and it is being positioned for an influential role in Gaza’s future as reconstruction begins. What defines this axis is its ideological identification with Muslim Brotherhood movements, with Hamas among the most prominent.
Saudi threat
Egypt, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates see the Muslim Brotherhood as an existential threat.
What happens if Saudi Arabia draws closer to that axis? It strengthens politically and potentially militarily. Other Arab states are hesitant to join the Abraham Accords, given Saudi Arabia’s practical departure from this alliance. Meanwhile, the UAE, arguably the Gulf’s most genuinely moderate state, one in which tolerance is not a slogan but a lived foundation, becomes more exposed and less embraced by its neighbors.
In other words, the region’s balance tilts toward Islamist extremism, not moderation.
US complacency
I am not convinced that a Trump-led US would automatically treat such a shift as negative or respond with urgency. Trump tends not to judge regimes by their values but by their willingness to strike deals that serve his interests. However, if Saudi Arabia avoids deliberately provocative broadcasts about its rapprochement with the Muslim Brotherhood, Washington’s posture toward Riyadh may not change.
I worry that closer Saudi alignment with the Turkey-Qatar axis might instead increase the advantages Trump has granted it, although the opposite could happen.
Israel may yet find itself facing a Turkish naval presence off Gaza’s coastline, barely a dozen kilometers from Ashkelon. Anyone who follows Turkey’s maritime strategy knows its consistent ambition: to plant naval footholds wherever it has already established influence through construction and infrastructure projects.
Israel must act
Israel cannot afford to remain indifferent to the change emerging in Riyadh. Jerusalem must tighten coordination with Egypt and Jordan, and even more so with the United Arab Emirates. A strong, moderate regional coalition is now extremely urgent.
However, bolstering these relationships won’t occur in isolation. To enable a deeper partnership with moderate states, Israel will need to halt, immediately, the accelerating annexation drive and the ethnic cleansing underway in parts of the West Bank.
As for Saudi Arabia, sooner or later it will have to return to the moderate regional camp. The kingdom’s ambitious internal reforms do not align with Muslim Brotherhood ideology. These reforms align with a partnership among moderate, forward-looking states.
The writer is a former IDF commander, Israeli minister, and deputy minister of defense. He is a board member of Commanders for Israel’s Security.