Maduro's fall decimates the Russia-Iran-China axis in Latin America - opinion

For over a decade, these three authoritarian powers leveraged Venezuela as their gateway to Latin America, transforming what should have been a prosperous democracy into a launching pad for anti-American operations. Moscow's collapse, Beijing's shock, and Tehran's fury at Maduro's capture reveal just how catastrophic this loss truly is.

Russia's Venezuelan adventure was never primarily about oil or debt repayment – it was about challenging American primacy in its own backyard. Vladimir Putin used Venezuela to demonstrate that Russia remained a global power capable of projecting influence anywhere, including America's immediate sphere. The deployment of TU-160 strategic bombers to Caracas in 2008 and S-300 missile systems in 2019 weren't military necessities; they were geopolitical provocations designed to signal that Moscow could operate with impunity near US borders.

Russia poured over $10 billion into propping up the Maduro regime, accepting Venezuelan oil as debt payment while the Russian economy itself struggled under sanctions. This wasn't economically rational – it was strategically calculated. Moscow viewed Venezuela as leverage against American support for Ukraine and Georgia, a chess piece Putin could deploy to keep Washington distracted in its own hemisphere while he pursued objectives elsewhere.

For the Iranian regime, Venezuela wasn't just an ally – it was proof that Tehran could build anti-American partnerships globally, creating what they hoped would become a network of resistance to American influence. Iranian state media regularly celebrated Venezuela as evidence that the "axis of resistance" extended beyond the Middle East.

Maduro's capture comes at the worst possible moment for Tehran. Already facing massive internal protests and international isolation, The Islamic Republic now watches helplessly as its Latin American anchor collapses. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei's defiant rhetoric about "standing firmly against the enemy" rings hollow when the reality is clear: Iran could do nothing to prevent or reverse Maduro's removal. The message to protesters in Tehran is unmistakable – Iran's regional influence, let alone its global ambitions, exist largely in propaganda rather than reality.

China's Venezuela strategy exemplified its broader Latin American approach: extend massive loans to commodity-rich countries, secure favorable access to natural resources, and gradually build economic dependency that translates into political influence. Venezuela's vast oil reserves made it an ideal target for this strategy.

The timing of Maduro's capture adds insult to injury for Beijing. Chinese officials met with the captured leader in Caracas just hours before American forces struck – a pointed demonstration that China's diplomatic engagement means nothing when Washington decides to act. Beijing's foreign ministry expressed being "deeply shocked," language that barely conceals the strategic humiliation.

China invested billions expecting that Maduro would survive indefinitely with their backing. Instead, they've learned that even massive financial commitments cannot shield authoritarian clients from American military action when Washington decides regime change serves its interests.

China now faces unpalatable choices in Venezuela: write off tens of billions in investments and loans, or negotiate with whatever government emerges to salvage what it can. Either way, Beijing's broader strategy of using economic leverage to build political influence in America's backyard has suffered a massive setback. Other Latin American countries considering whether to tilt toward Chinese investment will take note: Beijing cannot protect its partners from American pressure.

The Maduro extraction demonstrates that America's adversaries vastly overestimated their ability to challenge US influence in the Western Hemisphere. Russia, Iran, and China each believed they could establish and sustain an anti-American regime right on America's doorstep. They invested enormous resources – military equipment, billions in loans, political capital, and intelligence cooperation – only to see it all collapse in a single overnight operation.

For these three powers, Venezuela wasn't just another ally – it represented their collective strategy of creating alternative poles of power to challenge American hegemony. They envisioned a multipolar world where American power could be balanced, checked, or rolled back. Venezuela was supposed to prove this strategy viable.

Instead, Maduro's capture proves the opposite. When America chooses to assert its power in its immediate sphere of influence, no combination of Russian military advisors, Chinese investments, and Iranian intelligence cooperation can prevent it. The axis of autocracies invested heavily in challenging American primacy in Latin America: That investment has now vaporized.

The lesson extends beyond Venezuela. Authoritarian regimes worldwide that rely on Russian, Iranian, or Chinese backing must now recalculate. These powers cannot protect their clients when push comes to shove, particularly not in America's neighborhood. The "multipolar world" these nations promise remains, for now, largely aspirational.

Critics will continue debating the legality and wisdom of the Maduro extraction. But the strategic reality is clear: In a single night, the United States dismantled a decade-long effort by Russia, Iran, and China to undermine American influence in Latin America. That represents a genuine victory in the broader competition between democracies and autocracies for global influence – and one America's adversaries will not soon forget.