Over the past few days, the headlines have been dominated by the news of a deal to end the war in Iran.
According to reporting from Axios, the New York Times, and others, the agreement being negotiated would open the Strait of Hormuz, provide the Iranian regime with sanctions relief – a figure of $25 billion has been floated – and require Tehran to hand over its enriched uranium.
The deal, we are told, would prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
Although the actual details have not been made public, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking from India this week, summarized the American position: the straits must be open, Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon, and the enriched uranium must be turned over.
“These are the president’s points consistently,” Rubio said.
When US President Donald Trump launched the military campaign against Iran on February 28, he delivered an eight-minute address to the nation laying out four objectives: destroy Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities, annihilate its navy, ensure that Iran’s terrorist proxies – Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and the wider network – could no longer destabilize the region, and prevent Iran from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon.
Those were the military objectives. But then Trump turned to the Iranian people directly.
“To the members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard,” he said, “I say tonight that you must lay down your weapons and have complete immunity, or in the alternative, face certain death.”
He then addressed the Iranian people: “The hour of your freedom is at hand. When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will probably be your only chance for generations. For many years, you have asked for America’s help, but you never got it. No president was willing to do what I am willing to do tonight.”
Now re-read those words in light of what is happening today.
Compare what Trump said on February 28 to what Rubio said this week. The objectives of the war, as originally stated, included the destruction of Iran’s proxy network, the dismantling of the IRGC, and, explicitly, the liberation of the Iranian people. None of those appear in Rubio’s summary, and none have been achieved.
The IRGC did not lay down its weapons. It did not face certain death. It is intact. So why didn’t the Iranian people rise up?
The gap between rhetoric and reality
The answer is straightforward: they couldn’t. They have no weapons. An unarmed population cannot overthrow a security apparatus that is still fully operational.
The only scenario in which Trump’s call to the Iranian people could have been anything more than rhetoric was if the military campaign had actually degraded the IRGC to the point of collapse. That did not happen, and when the ceasefire went into effect in early April, the window closed.
What followed made things worse.
Rather than signaling to the Iranian people that he had their backs, the administration entered negotiations with the regime itself – with the murderous Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of Parliament, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, with IRGC-linked officials, and with the very people Trump had told to lay down their arms or face death.
From the perspective of any Iranian who heard Trump’s address on February 28 and dared to hope, the message of those negotiations was unambiguous: America is not coming for the regime. America is cutting a deal with it.
Why would the Iranian people believe the United States has their backs now? What signal have they received since February 28 that would justify that belief?
This is the question that the current debate is almost entirely ignoring. The discussion has narrowed to enriched uranium removal, verification mechanisms, and sanctions schedules – as if the only thing that matters is the nuclear file. But the nuclear file cannot be separated from the survival of the regime.
A deal that provides sanctions relief to Tehran ensures the regime will remain in power. And a regime that survives this, that weathers a US military campaign and emerges with a diplomatic agreement and cash, will be emboldened, and justifiably so.
It will likely come down harder on its own people. Eventually, it will reconstitute its capabilities because the network that funds and directs them remains intact.
I am not questioning Trump’s good intentions, and course correction remains possible. But that cannot obscure what is in front of us.
On February 28, President Trump told the Iranian people that this is “your only chance for generations.” He was right about that.
The combination of sustained military pressure, a weakened IRGC, and genuine American backing could have created the conditions for the Iranian people to determine their own future. That moment required follow-through that never came.
The Iranian people have been betrayed by Western leaders before. They have watched American presidents draw red lines and walk away from them, negotiate with their oppressors, and ultimately leave them to face the consequences alone.
If this deal goes through as reported, they will watch it happen again. And this time, the president who is doing it is the one who told them the hour of their freedom was at hand.
The writer is the executive director of Israel365 Action and co-host of the Shoulder to Shoulder podcast.