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At least a third of MKs not expected to return
By LAHAV HARKOV
10/12/2012
Between 40 and 47 MKs are not expected to return for the next Knesset, 24 of them from Kadima, eight from Likud.
 
With lists of those running for the 19th Knesset almost finalized, one-third of current MKs are unlikely to be sworn in again in February. Between 40 and 47 current MKs will not be members of the next Knesset.

Kadima holds the record for most MKs unlikely to remain in the Knesset, with a high estimate of 24 out of its 28 MKs. A low estimate would be 19, if the party passes the election threshold and The Tzipi Livni Party gets 10 seats – two scenarios not reflected in most poll results.

Second is Likud, with eight MKs who will not return, followed by five from Yisrael Beytenu and five more from Independence, which will not run in the next Knesset.

In addition, two out of three Habayit Hayehudi MKs are no longer in the running, while National Union chairman Ya’acov Katz dropped out of the race. According to most polls, Strong Israel will not pass the election threshold, adding two more MKs to the count.

One Labor MK, Daniel Ben-Simon, is ranked 20th on the party list, which is borderline realistic for the next Knesset, while Yoram Marciano, who is expected to replace Amir Peretz this week, is not running.

Of the MKs who will not be in the next Knesset, 17 dropped out of the race since the election was announced in October, including seven from Kadima, two in Yisrael Beytenu, two in Habayit Hayehudi, one in National Union and all of Independence.

Fifteen current MKs ran or are running in the election in a different party than the one in which they served in the 18th Knesset. Two Kadima MKs – Nino Abesadze and Nachman Shai – moved to Labor, while seven more went to The Tzipi Livni Party. Three more – Home Front Defense Minister Avi Dichter, Arieh Bibi and Yulia Shamolov Berkovich – ran in the Likud primary, but did not get realistic spots on the list.

Shamolov Berkovich now leads the Calcala Party, which is unlikely to get into the next Knesset.

In addition, former Kadima MK Tzachi Hanegbi is in a realistic spot on the Likud list, as is Peretz, who resigned from Labor on Thursday, on The Tzipi Livni Party list.

The two Strong Israel MKs, Arieh Eldad and Michael Ben-Ari, broke off from National Union, while MK Haim Amsalem left Shas to form his own Am Shalem party.

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The deadline to submit candidacy in the upcoming election was Thursday at 10 p.m., and 34 parties submitted lists to the Central Election Committee. However, the parties running on January 22 will be finalized on December 23, when the committee publicizes its decisions as to whether any lists or candidates are disqualified for technical or legal reasons.

The committee will review any complaints it received, such as the many requests by right-wing MKs to disqualify Arab parties Balad and United Arab List- Ta’al on the grounds that they oppose Israel as the state of the Jewish people or support a foreign entity or terrorist group taking up arms against Israel.

In addition, it must examine whether the registration process was completed properly by all 34 parties, and that they fill the minimum conditions to participate in the election.

Comparing the realistic candidates in six lists likely to get the most seats in the next Knesset – Likud Beytenu (40), Labor (20), Habayit Hayehudi (15), The Tzipi Livni Party (10), Shas (15) and Yesh Atid (10) – reveals interesting statistics on ages, number of women, religious status and more on possible MKs and parties in the next Knesset.

Habayit Hayehudi has the youngest list, with an average age of 48; followed by Yesh Atid and the Likud, which are tied at 51; then Labor and Shas, which are tied at 52; and The Tzipi Livni Party, with an average age of 53. Labor has both the youngest and the oldest candidate: Stav Shafir, who is 27, and MK Binyamin Ben-Eliezer, who is 76.

Shas has the most religious list, with only religious candidates, while 14 out of 15 Habayit Hayehudi candidates counted identify themselves as religious.

Likud has six realistic religious candidates. Yesh Atid has two religious people in its top 10, Livni has one and Labor has none.

Yesh Atid has the highest percentage of women, with four females in its top 10, followed by Labor and The Tzipi Livni Party at 30 percent. The Likud and Habayit Hayehudi follow with 20% and 25%, respectively. Shas is at the bottom of the list with no women.

Yesh Atid also has the most educated list. Although party leader Yair Lapid did not graduate high school, everyone else has a university degree. The Likud and The Tzipi Livni Party are tied with Yesh Atid at 90%. In Labor, 80% of candidates are academics, followed by Habayit Hayehudi with 67% and Shas in last place at 33%.
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