Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood President Mohamed Morsi continues to solidify his
hold on power with a clear victory in the two-stage constitutional referendum
that was called to ratify Egypt’s new constitution. While much of the media
coverage of the referendum covered the opposition protests, led by the National
Salvation Front coalition, less has been said about how convincing the Muslim
Brotherhood victory turned out to be.
According to unofficial results
published on the Al-Ahram website, the first round resulted in 57 percent voting
“yes” and 43% voting “no.” In the second round that took place this past
weekend, 71% voted “yes” and 29% voted “no.” Thus, the final results were 64%
yes, and 36% no. While the opposition has claimed some voting abuses, no major
irregularities have been reported.
The crux of the opposition’s argument
rests not on the democratic nature of the referendum vote, but on the
heavy-handed way in which Morsi pushed through the constitutional drafting
process. He did make some compromises in order to sway the public and pacify his
opponents, though in the end the Muslim Brotherhood, and its even more hard-core
Salafist allies, ran a successful and well-organized campaign. The disunity and
disorganization of the opposition gave Morsi an even greater edge in the
voting.
Memri reported that the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafis went
all-out in the campaign for the referendum, holding conferences across the
country and even canvassing neighborhoods, going door-to-door to drum up
support.
While the Brotherhood was busy training 7,000 activists to
promote the referendum, the opposition was fighting amongst itself, debating
whether to boycott the vote. Furthermore, mosque preachers were recruited as
well as government- controlled media to push for a “yes” vote. In addition, a
holiday for civil servants was declared for the first round of voting on
December 15.
For Morsi and his supporters, the election went according to
plan. Despite intermittent protests and violence, a strong majority
democratically supported the new constitution. Despite this, it has been
reported that clashes have already erupted between the opposition and pro-Morsi
forces, but for now it seems that Morsi has been validated and granted a degree
of public legitimacy for his increasingly dictatorial actions. As Jerusalem Post
columnist Barry Rubin stated, “The victory in the referendum on the constitution
is the fourth straight Muslim Brotherhood success – including the overthrow of
president Hosni Mubarak’s regime with army assistance, the parliamentary
election and the presidential election – in the process of taking over Egypt for
the long-term and fundamentally transforming it into a radical Islamist
state.”
This raises the question: On what grounds can the opposition
object since the referendum passed with strong public support? How much the
jockeying for power in Egypt fits the narrative of a factional clash between the
Muslim Brotherhood and ex-president Mubarak’s supporters remains unclear. But
what seems to be continuing is a regional chess match between the Western-backed
Sunni Arab governments such as those in the Gulf and in Jordan, and their
domestic and international revolutionary Islamist opposition. The Islamist
governments in Egypt, Tunisia, Turkey and Iran continue to show various degrees
of support for Islamist movements and governments throughout the region,
including groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah.
The constant chorus heard
from the media of the Western-backed Arab Gulf states helps crystallize the
regional battle taking place between the Islamist and status-quo powers. For
example, the Saudi-backed Arabic daily Al-sharq Al-awsat continues to criticize
Morsi daily for his dictatorial moves. An editorial in Sunday’s paper by Tariq
Alhomayed argued that the difference between Morsi and the opposition is “the
difference between those who believe in the importance of the state and its
institutions, and those who want to swallow the state and distort the
performance of its institutions and its basic concepts.”
He went on to
conclude that “everyone is aware of the danger of what is happening in Egypt and
our region.”
Morsi will continue to solidify his power in Egypt and tread
the line pragmatically between going as far as he can while at the same time
pulling back when he sees he is threatening his own hold on power. Evidence of
this can be seen in how Morsi has actively sought international economic aid in
dealing with its dismal economic situation. If, however, the Brotherhood sees
that it can continue to advance, overrunning any opposition, it will most likely
do so.
This is especially going to be the case when it sees the large
“yes” vote in the recently completed constitutional referendum.
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