T he sectarian war in Syria has reportedly claimed more than 60,000 lives and
spawned concerns in the Middle East and the West about access to chemical
weapons by non-state actors such as al-Qaida, Hezbollah and Hamas. Syria’s
chemical weapons stockpiles are of immediate concern to Israel, Jordan and the
United States, whether in Syrian President Bashar Assad’s hands or those of
terrorist organizations. Yet the locations of chemical weapons munitions and
Scud missiles equipped with chemical warheads in Syria have been identified and
are continually monitored. That is not the case with the arguably even more
dangerous biological weapons being developed by the nexus of Iran, Syria and
North Korea.
More than 167 nations have signed the United Nations
Biological Weapons Convention. Syria is a signatory, but has not ratified the
treaty. Iran, also a signatory, has ratified it, but is pursuing development of
microbial agents with the aid of Russian and North Korean scientists who may be
graduates of the Sovietera Biopreparat program that created some of these
dangerous biological agents.
Among the more than 16 biological agents
that Iran is reportedly developing are anthrax, Ebola, encephalitis, biological
toxins, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), cholera, smallpox and
plague.
Worse yet, Iran, with North Korea’s help, has genetically altered
the smallpox virus in ways that may make current vaccinations
ineffective.
The Islamists ruling Iran may think their planned microbial
attacks cannot be traced to them. Biological weapons pose a risk that other
weapon classes (nuclear, radiological and chemical) do not. They are living
organisms, some of which are highly infectious and transmissible, depending on
the strain. Some have lengthy incubation periods that make early detection
exceptionally difficult.
Genetically modified, weaponized biological
agents would pose threats for which there are no known medical countermeasures.
Biological weapons are silent until they explode in epidemics or
pandemics.
Calculating kill ratios and controlling strikes as with
chemical weapons and nuclear weapons are nearly impossible with biological
weapons.
Intelligence analyst Andrew O’Neil said in a 2003 article in the
Australian Journal of International Affairs that terrorists would prefer to use
biological weapons for three reasons: “First, [biological weapons] agents are
far easier to acquire than nuclear weapons and produce the same killing impact
as [chemical weapons]. Moreover, on a pound-for-pound basis, [biological weapon]
agents are far more potent than any of the most deadly [chemical weapon] agents,
which must be ‘delivered in massive quantities to inflict lethal concentrations
over large areas.’ “Second, the effects of biological weapons on a target
population would be extremely hard to counter.
“Third, the insidious
nature of [biological weapon] agents – composed as they are of living
microorganisms with the capacity to reproduce and mutate – has the potential to
psychologically ‘unhinge’ target populations.”
Iran and Syria are
reported to be among regimes that have received variations of such deadly
biological weapons agents and developed their own domestic programs. Each of
these countries also has an extensive medical and pharmaceutical research and
development infrastructure within which to produce and conceal its biological
weapons programs. Iran and Syria also have shared artillery, ballistic missile
and munitions technology with each other and likely with Hezbollah for delivery
of such pathogens.
Middle East threat reduction requires a far more
aggressive and comprehensive approach to deter the proliferation of biological
weapons.
Once again, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and
his powerful clerical and military regime continue to use deceitful tactics to
conceal development of an arsenal of virtually untraceable deadly biological
weapons that could result in tens of millions of deaths. And they are doing it
while Israel and the P5+1 – the five permanent members of the UN Security
Council plus Germany – are contending with the Islamic Republic approaching the
“red lines” of nuclear enrichment and weapons development.
The threats
from these deadly microbial agents are alarming and real. The unleashing of
bio-warfare agents against Israel and the United States could bring both
countries to their knees. These deadly biological weapons programs in Iran and
Syria must be stopped.
Jill Bellamy van Aalst is a biological warfare
threat analyst. Clare Lopez is a senior fellow at the Center for Security
Policy. Reza Kahlili, author of A Time to Betray (Threshold, 2010), is a former
CIA operative and serves on the US Task Force on National and Homeland
Security.
This article originally appeared in the Washington Times and
has been reprinted with permission.
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