After Israel’s most recent military operation in Gaza, which ended with a
cease-fire, Hamas has been claiming victory and enjoying popularity with the
Palestinians, which comes as a setback for Hamas’s rivals; Palestinian Authority
President Mahmoud Abbas and his Fatah faction.
With Hamas popularity on
the rise, Abbas was left with one desperate option to boost his image: pressing
his quest for UN recognition of Palestine as an independent state.
Abbas has other problems in his own house; there is friction within Abbas’s
Fatah, as Abbas’s rival, Muhammad Dahlan, is still very influential and has a
Dahlan was a senior member of the Fatah Central Committee
and the chief of the Palestinian Preventive Security Service. For years, he
served as the main Palestinian counterterrorism coordination figure with
Abbas’s Fatah managed to expel Dahlan in June 2011 following
allegations by Abbas that Dahlan had murdered Arafat using poison.
lives in exile now, but he has the money and the followers to disrupt Abbas
nonetheless, if not necessarily to topple him. It is not unlikely that rivalry
between Abbas and Dahlan would evolve into further friction between their
followers should Abbas exhibit further signs of weakness or step down.
addition, the Arab Spring has drawn attention from the Palestinian cause as a
whole and from Abbas as the poster child for the Arab-Israeli conflict; the
media now has Syria, Egypt and other hot-spots to cover over Abbas’s heart-felt
speeches, or his meetings with world leaders.
As a result, Palestinians
in the West Bank are no longer seeing Abbas in the international media, or
mingling with world leaders, and are therefore focusing more on their miserable
living conditions, which, as revealed by a recent poll by the Palestinian Center
for Policy and Survey Research, 70 percent of them believe are due to PA
Last October, prominent Israeli political scholar and Arabist
Mordechai Kedar told a crowd in London that “the biggest victim of the Arab
Spring is the Palestinian cause, as the world’s media is no longer occupied with
it” – and with the fading significance of the Palestinian cause goes Abbas’s own
Adding to Abbas’s woes is that the Palestinians in the West
Bank do not seem to be too enthusiastic about his quest to gain UN recognition
for Palestine as an independent state.
While Abbas’s UN stunt succeeded –
Palestine is now an observer state in the UN – its very success could cause
Abbas’s disappearance from the political scene, because the Oslo peace agreement
requires the Palestinians to not unilaterally seek international recognition as
a state, and therefore Abbas’s stunt gives Israel the full legal right to end
BUT SAY he does disappear, due to a “Palestinian
Spring,” a coup by his rivals or even retirement – the man is 77 after all –
would the PA survive? First of all, the PA is not favored within its own
jurisdiction, as confirmed by the above-mentioned poll by the Palestinian Center
for Policy and Survey Research. In 2005, renowned scholar Daniel Pipes reported
Palestinians under the PA were already saying that “Israel’s hell was better
than Arafat’s paradise,” and considering that Arafat had much more credit with
the Palestinians than does Abbas, one can only imagine how Palestinians would
view a PA without even Abbas.
In fact, a 2011 poll conducted by Pechter
Middle East Polls in partnership with the Council on Foreign Relations, when
asked if they preferred to become a citizen of Palestine, with all of the rights
and privileges of other citizens of Palestine, or a citizen of Israel, only 30
percent chose Palestinian citizenship.”
True, Abbas’s second in command,
Palestinian Prime Minister Salaam Fayad, has a reputation for transparency and
decency, but since Abbas appointed him in June 2007, the Palestinian Legislative
Council has not confirmed his appointment. It is therefore, unlikely he would be
able to secure the presidency.
With no heir apparent for Abbas, who could
secure public support and control the various military factions? With the PA’s
reputation for corruption and the disapproval of it among the Palestinian
public, it is possible that the PA’s future will be in jeopardy if Abbas steps
down, quits, or retires.
While there are a few who argue that the West
Bank should be handed to the Hashemite regime in Jordan, King Abdullah faces his
own domestic challenges. Despite the media’s low coverage of unrest in Jordan,
there is an on-going, relentless public call to topple the Hashemite regime.
Those hoping the Jordanian regime could play a future role in the West Bank
ignore the possibility that the Hashemite regime itself might not exist in the
It is about time those concerned with peace and regional
stability start considering contingency plans for a West Bank without Abbas, and
possibly even without the Palestinian Authority. There is much to consider, and
not necessarily as much time.
The writer is a Palestinian-Jordanian
living in the UK.