By the time US President Donald Trump heard Iran’s offer for a new nuclear deal this past Thursday, he quickly prepared to order the attack that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had been pressing for him to initiate.
There is no question that the primary trigger for Trump’s decision to attack Iran was his belief that it needed to be removed as both a nuclear threat and as a general threat in the Middle East, along with his distress over the large-scale slaughter of Iranian protesters.
But part of his timing for finally ordering the attack was likely related to US domestic politics and Congress.
After his January 3 attack on Venezuela, the US Congress had a 215-215 tie on a vote to limit Trump’s war powers in the country. Although the vote did not restrain Trump, it was politically embarrassing.
However, from Trump’s perspective, the vote came only after he had already carried out most of the controversial actions he had intended to take.
Regarding Iran, Democrats and at least a few Republicans had vowed this week that they would hold a vote to block Trump from taking military action in Iran in the first place.
Given that much of Trump’s own “America First” constituency opposes the war or has very mixed feelings about US military involvement in the Middle East, losing a Congressional vote, even if he could veto it, could have made it much harder for him to launch the attack at all.
US-Israel success in Iran silences attack opponents
In contrast, now the US and Israel have already projected some major signs of victory by killing Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and many other top Iranian officials.
They have started hammering away at Iran’s ballistic missile program and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and the Basij militia headquarters used to oppress and slaughter Iranian protesters.
On Sunday, three American soldiers were killed, and five were wounded, highlighting that the conflict has exacted a cost on US forces. But those numbers are still tiny compared to the nightmare scenarios that opponents of the US attack had warned about.
All of this will make it harder for any Democrats or Republicans who were on the fence or who opposed Trump going to war with Iran without procedural Congressional authorization, but who generally support his goals there, to vote against him in any future war powers vote this week.
In that sense, the timing of the attack was influenced by a variety of factors: Iran’s failed nuclear offer, the arrival of two aircraft carrier groups, and the receipt of intelligence on exactly where Khamenei would be on Saturday morning for assassination purposes.
The timing of the attack before the upcoming week was likely also a move to outflank Congressional opposition. Now, those voting to restrain Trump’s war powers on Iran will have to vote against what is so far widely viewed as a successful operation.