US President Donald Trump is on a historic visit to China that could potentially have major ramifications for the world order.
China and the US are signaling they want to seek accommodations on certain policies. The goal is to avoid a clash and possible conflict.
China is a rising power. Some analysts believe the US is a declining power. As such, there is a chance that in terms of global affairs, this will naturally lead to clashes.
On the other hand, it might be that neither the US nor China will end up rising or declining in a way that is predictable. The meetings in China, therefore, have a lot of impact on the Middle East.
China is an emerging power in terms of influence in the Middle East. Beijing has been treading carefully in the region and doesn’t want to be involved in conflict. Here are five reasons the US-China meetings matter for the region.
China’s emerging role in the Middle East
China has been playing a greater role in the region incrementally. For instance, it has sent its navy to the region in recent years. It has also been involved in fostering talking between Iran and Saudi Arabia in recent years.
That means it has sought to bring stability to the region. China was wary of conflict zones, such as Syria. It has been more deeply involved in the Gulf, however, seeking out partnerships and investments.
China’s role is ambiguous at the moment. Is it only about investment, or will there be a military component?
China, for many years, was improving its relationship with Israel. This included investments in Israel as well, which the US viewed with concern.
In recent years, Beijing has been much more critical of Jerusalem. It now seems that Israel’s attempt to work more closely with Russia and China, at the expense of working with the West, has shifted.
As China shifts gears in the region, it wants to extend economic partnerships with non-Western groups such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). This ties in with the China-Russia partnership.
As such, in the geopolitical space, China is a rising power in the region, and it has close ties with countries such as Pakistan. It will likely have closer ties with Saudi Arabia, Syria, and other countries in the future.
China’s role in mediation with Iran
China has had increasing ties with Iran over the past decade. This included a 25-year deal that was supposed to lead to Iran-China partnerships. Most of this deal was unrealized.
It seems that Beijing was cautious and worried about Iran’s potential for destabilizing areas. China doesn’t want to be dragged into conflict.
Beijing has been critical of the US and Israeli attack on Iran. As such, Chinese President Xi Jinping has a chance to work with Trump on Iran deals.
The deals include China agreeing that Iran should not have a nuclear weapon, and that the Strait of Hormuz should remain open, Saudi Arabia-based newspaper Arab News reported, citing a statement from the White House.
“Xi Jinping said earlier that trade talks were making progress at the start of a two-day summit but warned that disagreement over Taiwan could send relations down a dangerous path,” the report said.
China could become a major peacemaker by playing the role that the US played in the early 20th century. The Treaty of Portsmouth, which formally ended the 1904-1905 Russo-Japanese War, was brokered with US support. It was signed on September 5, 1905. This could be China’s model now.
China-Israel relations in the spotlight
When the war in Iran began on February 28, there were articles that looked at how it might impact China. A quick defeat of Iran would show that Israel and the US were dominant powers in the region.
Countries in the region, particularly Saudi Arabia, appear concerned about such an outcome. Iran has not folded. This enables China to wait and see what comes next.
China once had better ties with Israel, but they began to get worse around 2021. That’s when China also pivoted to helping Saudi-Iran ties.
China is nonplussed with Israel. “Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun on Tuesday rejected Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s claims that China aided Iran’s missile program,” Ynet reported Tuesday.
“Guo was asked about Netanyahu’s remarks in an interview with CBS’ 60 Minutes, in which he said China had provided Iran with ‘a certain amount of support and certain components for missile production,’ adding that he ‘didn’t like it,’” the report said. “Netanyahu declined to elaborate ahead of the planned summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.”
This means that China is watching Israel closely. It likely views Israel through the lens that it also views the US. It knows Israel and the US have increasingly close military ties. It also knows that Israel had sought out closer ties to non-Western powers between 2015 and 2023. The October 7 massacre in 2023, however, has changed many things.
Israel has close ties with India, which is often seen as a rival to China. Israel also has close ties with South Korea and Singapore. Israel historically has good ties in Asia with Western allies, but it has also worked on ties with countries such as Vietnam and those in Central Asia.
China is watching Israel’s moves closely, and Beijing is likely impressed with Israel’s technological advances.
China-Gulf influence
As the Iran conflict continues, China will benefit from its ties with the Gulf states. This is particularly true of its ties with Saudi Arabia.
China is seen as a rising power and one that can bring stability and investment. There is concern in the region that the US war with Iran has spread chaos and instability.
Countries like Saudi Arabia want to hedge their bets on what comes next in the world. Saudi Arabia has been a close friend of the US since the 1930s. Nevertheless, it now understands that this century will bring new challenges.
Gulf media outlets are watching what happens with the Trump visit to China. One report said the conflict was “fast-tracking” China’s influence in the Gulf and the region.
Meanwhile, the Associated Press reported: “Kuwait said on Tuesday that Iran launched a failed attack earlier this month on an island where China is helping build a port in the Gulf Arab country. The accusation came just hours before Trump was to depart for Beijing on a high-stakes visit over the Iran war and other issues.”
This is important. Countries want to make it clear to China that Iran’s actions are also a threat to stability. Iran will want to try to smooth things out and emerge as the responsible power.
China may benefit from trade deals and munitions
“US missile shortages could strengthen China’s hand during Trump visit,” the South China Morning Post reported on the eve of the Trump visit.
This messaging is clear. It means the US has wasted a lot of munitions in the war on Iran.
China has watched closely. If the US had landed a knockout blow, then China might feel worried. But if the US is tied down in Iran, that could benefit China.
On the other hand, China wants to secure trade and oil deliveries. As such, it may be concerned that the continued US blockade of Iran and the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz might affect China’s dominance and its need for oil and other trade that passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran also feels that if it can’t secure trade routes, its future might be in jeopardy.
China historically was not a major naval power. It is a land power, primarily. Over recent decades, however, it has invested heavily in shipbuilding and naval power.
Iran does not have good infrastructure for land links with its neighbors. This is partly due to geography. Building land links to Central Asia is difficult. Also, its neighbors in that area are mostly poorer and less developed.
As such, Iran has to search for maritime trade to secure its future. The Gulf is important for this. The disruption in recent years, in the Red Sea and now the Strait of Hormuz, has led China to rethink its role in the world.