Iran ‘playing poker,’ unprepared for regional war, former deputy commander of CENTCOM tells ‘Post’

Harward, who now serves as a senior advisor to The Jewish Institute for National Security of America’s Iran Policy Project, shared that the recent aggression shown by the regime is “the same game plan Iran has had for decades,” but that it was little more than a failed attempt to display strength.

In a package with the military aggression, senior officials in the Islamic regime have shared inflammatory rhetoric threatening to drag the entire region into war. The threats come amid allegations of international interference and Tehran’s brutal mass killing of protesters.

Iran has “always harassed US warships in the region. And some of this is just a continuation, but some of it is clearly aligned to what's going on with either the negotiations and the anticipation of strikes or other actions against Iran.”

“These are all somewhat Tactical Operations intended to harass and reinforce the limited power that the Iranian government and the IRGC,” he continued.

According to Oman’s Foreign Ministry, “The consultations focused on preparing the appropriate conditions for resuming diplomatic and technical negotiations, while emphasising their importance, in light of the parties’ determination to ensure their success in achieving sustainable security and stability.”

While regional players have expressed concern about the regional conflict, Harward assured that “past operations, the Israeli strike on the nuclear facilities with US support and US participation, the neutering of Iran's surface-to-air missile threats illustrates how weak the regime is.”

The recent aggression displayed by the regime is likely just Tehran “grasping at the last straw.”

Asked whether the regime posed any real threat to US forces or allies in the region, Harward answered, “not in a strategic sense, just very tactical.”

“If they were to escalate and kind of their last remaining spear, be it missiles, be it strategic or tactical, dependent on the range, that would really bring escalation to the point that Iran is not prepared to deal with… so they're playing poker,” he explained.

Speaking on Tehran’s mass killing of protesters and widespread human rights violations, Harward expressed faith that US President Donald Trump would honor his promise to the Iranian people.

“In his recent announcement, he said he stands behind the Iranian people…  to support them and help is on the way. So he's made it clear that these violations, these mass murderings [of ]10 to 20,000 people are intolerable, and I think at the end of the day, that's the main theme in Iran,” he shared.

Asked specifically what support he thought Trump would offer the protesters, he admitted there was a range of routes the US administration could take.  The US could “provide communications and intelligence to those who are opposing the regimes, couldprovide them arms, could provide them other means that are more covert or below the line, kind of like the way Iran has been addressing [the US] asymmetrically,” he listed.

“I think this administration has those same sort of options on the table, and I'd be surprised if they're not already pursuing them to influence the regime, much less lead to regime change. I think all those options are on the table,” he continued.

It is important to “understand how important not just the regime leadership is, but the apparatus is. Those entities within the regime, be it the IRGC, be it the Basijj and other elements that can still, with a change of leadership, be anxious to fill that void,” he explained.

Harward, who spent many of his teenage years in Tehran before the Islamic regime seized power in 1979, said that the regime’s mistreatment of civilians over the past 46 years had ensured that the population couldn’t be radicalized despite the ayatollah’s efforts to indoctrinate the masses.

While Tehran has used past conflicts, such as the Iraq war and wars with the US and Israel, to “galvanize  and draw nationalism” at the regime’s benefit, Harward said “the population realizes now that those are all kinds of shams, tools the regime was using to stay in power, and they are now demanding something else, because how counterproductive that has been.”

“While this regime has used its resources to export the Revolution by building up surrogates, by funding surrogates, building up a military capability to fight, they've completely missed the mark in providing for the Iranian people,” he continued. “Allowing them to have a life that they can afford to live and feed their families, kids go to school. I think they've realized how the government failed… So another confrontation with Israel or the United States on that scale, I think, would result in imminent regime collapse or change.”

The water crisis, the millions killed in wars, and the high inflation are “the counterbalance to the indoctrination,” he said, evidencing his claims with the widespread protests.

The regime’s collapse may be helped along by the Trump administration, Harward said, noting that it was remarkably different leadership from the more conflict-averse governments the US has seen in recent years.

“I predict the regime will collapse, the sooner and better in my opinion, but I just don't know how long,” he shared.

“In my humble opinion, regime collapse is imminent. It's no longer a matter of if. It's just a matter of when.” Harward had no doubt that the regime’s fall would bring prosperity to the Iranian people and peace to the region. “The fall of the regime would mean… stability, a lot greater peace and prosperity. If you take the amount of oil reserves, the intellectual capacity, and just overall capacity of people, this region becomes one of the most prosperous in the world,” he hypothesized.