Israel started the Iran war boldly by assassinating Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps chief, the Iranian military chief, and the Iranian defense minister – all on February 28.
However, US leaks have indicated that US President Donald Trump did not expect Israel to kill over 40 senior officials in those attacks, and that, in fact, some whom he had hoped would be more moderate and replace Khamenei were also killed.
Trump went so far as to admit that the US might need to restart its process of looking for a more moderate Iranian leader. While there were additional senior Iranian official assassinations over the next two weeks, it seems that, to some extent, Trump or Israel, or both, wanted to give those surviving a chance to adopt more moderate positions to survive the war and remain in power.
For Trump, at minimum, this would involve giving up the entire nuclear program.
For Israel, the goal would also include limiting Iran’s ballistic missile program.
No significant moderation occurred.
Mojtaba Khamenei, the Ayatollah’s son, was appointed as Iran’s supreme leader, while leaks have indicated that any Iranian outreach appears to be an attempt aimed at encouraging the US and Israel to stop attacking without making key concessions up front.
Iran’s top adviser, Ali Larijani, was killed in a Monday overnight strike, Defense Minister Israel Katz confirmed on Tuesday.
The assassination of Larijani – who has either been the de facto leader of Iran or, at minimum, was running much of its day-to-day operations on behalf of the wounded Mojtaba – sends a message to any of Iran’s surviving leaders: you are out of time.
In other words, those surviving Iranian leaders can either clearly and publicly make dramatic concessions to bring an end to the war, or they can remain in the crosshairs after having had a two-week reprieve and just hope to survive long enough before Trump pulls the plug himself.
There could also be more major assassinations soon if a deal is not reached.
Or Trump could finally end the war and move on, having made another hard push to coerce Iran’s surviving leaders into a deal.
The strike on Larijani on Monday sends a clear message – but as the war unfolds, it remains to be seen if Iran has received it.