Tehran's theater of mourning: What Khamenei's funeral tells us about Iran's next move - analysis

Here are a few angles that are worth paying attention to:

Iran has indicated it is prepared to host “dozens” of world leaders during the funeral. However, overall attendance has been from dignitaries who are not leaders but rather deputies or ministers.

There have been delegations from countries around the Middle East and Asia. This is the “global south” that Iran’s regime sought to appear to. However, Iran’s position has become more isolated in recent years. Had Khamenei died several years ago, it’s plausible more world leaders might have considered attending this event.

What do we know about those who did attend? Central Asian countries, such as Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, sent delegations. These countries enjoy increasingly good ties with Iran.

President Emomali Rahmon of Tajikistan expressed condolences and hopes for peace during a meeting with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in Tehran, according to reports. Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, the former president of Turkmenistan, also attended.

Overall, Iran expected some thirty delegations to attend. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said that at least eight heads of government or state and parliamentary speakers from 12 countries would attend, Euro News noted. This included delegations from Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Russia’s former President and Deputy Chairman of the Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, was sent as an envoy by President Vladimir Putin. China is sending the vice chair of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress. Afghanistan’s Taliban also sent their foreign minister. Iraq's delegation was headed by President Nizar Amidi.

The president of the Kurdistan Regional Government, Nechirvan Barzani, also came. Pakistan, India, Russia and China are all countries that have decent relations with Iran and are part of an emerging multi-polar world order.

CNN and other outlets have noted the absence of the new supreme leader. “Three of Khamenei’s sons join mass mourning in Tehran, but not his successor,” a report noted. Mojtaba Khamenei is the new Supreme Leader. He has not been seen in public and is believed to be wounded from the same attacks that killed his father.

Among the attendees were also representatives of Iran’s proxy network in the region.

“Representatives of Tehran-backed militant groups attended the funeral ceremonies of slain Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei on Saturday, with envoys from Hezbollah and Hamas meeting with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, state media reported,” France24 added.

Iran’s IRGC Quds Force commander Brigadier General Esmail Qaani and Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi both attended the prayers linked to the multi-day funeral.

The goal here is for Iran to show that its leadership and officials can still appear in public. However, the absence of the new Supreme Leader is important.

Is he too wounded to attend? Is he alive? Is he afraid of being killed? Or is the answer more complex? Perhaps he will appear when his father is buried. He doesn’t want to eclipse his father.

The funeral is a show of force for Iran. Six months ago, there were large protests in Iran in late December and early January. A crackdown by Iran led to the massacre of tens of thousands of people. As such, Tehran’s regime is wary of allowing any kind of dissent.

The goal of the funeral is to show that the regime can galvanize support from millions. In a country of 90 million people, having a million supporters of the regime is not a surprise. The question is whether this show of force actually reflects the will of the people.

Iran is seeking to use the funeral of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to reinforce its regional influence and project continuity after months of conflict.

As noted above, the ceremonies have drawn senior officials, militia leaders, and representatives from across the Middle East, providing Tehran with an opportunity to demonstrate resilience. This comes despite obvious military setbacks and economic pressure.

By hosting key partners from Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, and elsewhere, Iran aims to signal that its alliances remain intact and that what it calls the ‘Axis of Resistance’ continues to pose a threat to the region. In this sense, the funeral has become both a domestic display of unity and a diplomatic stage for regional messaging.

Key questions now remain about what comes next. Will Iran use the boost it feels from the week-long funeral to begin to try to claw back its influence? Will it now stall in the talks with the US?