For a week, the Islamic Republic has tried to tell itself, and the world, that the protests in Iran are merely about the price of the dollar. They are wrong.
As the shutters rolled down in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar in protest, a different sound rose up from the universities and the streets of Isfahan, Mashhad, Qom, Kermanshah, and Hamadan. It was not a cry for subsidies. It was a chant for the death of the Islamic Republic and the return of Pahlavi.
Cautious Western observers are mislabeling the protests rocking Iran today as "economic riots." While the trigger was indeed the rial’s catastrophic freefall, decimating the life savings of millions overnight, the fuel is something far more combustible: a decade of accumulated revolutionary demand.
The distinction between "economic grievances" and "political demands" in Iran has been dead for a decade now. When protesters in Delijan set fire to the statue of Qasem Soleimani on the very anniversary of his death, chanting “This is the final battle, Pahlavi will return,” they are not negotiating for lower bread prices.
They are burning the regime’s most sacred icons and rejecting its right to exist.
This uprising marks a critical evolution from the protests of 2017, 2019, and 2022. Today, the merchant and the student are marching in lockstep, joined by Iranians from diverse backgrounds across 100 cities and towns so far.
Pahlavi revival: Why Iran’s class divide has vanished
The universities, historically the bastions of anti-monarchist Marxism, are now echoing with chants of “Down with the three corrupts! Mullah, leftist, Mujahid.”
The Bazaar, which funded the Khomeinist movement in the 1970s, now chants “Reza Shah! Bless your soul!” In Qom and Mashhad, the historical bastion of the Shia clergy in Iran, people chant, “This is the final battle, Pahlavi will return.” This is all happening while across the country, people chant “Long live the Shah (King)”, “Death to dictator”, “Wail, Seyed Ali (Khamenei); Pahlavi is coming”, and “This is the national slogan: Reza Reza Pahlavi.”
The revival of a modern Iranian nationalism has bridged the class divide, creating a unified front that the mullahs fear more than any foreign army.
The regime’s response has been a masterclass in panic and inconsistency, resulting in a "tale of two crackdowns." In major urban centers, security forces have shown notable hesitation. This restraint reflects deep fractures within the ruling elite and a strategic anxiety: officials fear that a brutal urban massacre could severely weaken the regime’s military and oppressive machine’s internal unity just as they face a looming potential military confrontation with Israel and the United States.
However, in smaller cities and towns, the veneer of restraint has vanished. Here, the regime faces a different kind of threat: populations with strong tribal roots, better organization, and easier access to firearms.
Local security commanders, lacking specialized anti-riot units and fearing their headquarters will be overrun by these emboldened crowds, have resorted to deadly force as a first option. Confirmed casualties are mounting in the provinces as the IRGC deploys lethal violence to hold the periphery.
Pezeshkian’s attempt to stem the tide by sacking Central Bank Governor Farzin and recycling the previously impeached Abdolnasser Hemmati is a desperate reshuffling of deck chairs on a sinking ship.
Regime apologists continue to blame US sanctions, but the Iranian people know better. With oil exports near pre-sanctions levels and non-oil exports at record highs, the country is not broke; it is being looted.
The wealth of the nation is being siphoned off to fund proxy wars in Gaza and Lebanon, a reality the protesters indict with the chant, “Not for Gaza, not for Lebanon, I give my life for Iran.”
The stakes have now transcended Iran’s borders. By murdering demonstrators and hunting down dissidents, Khamenei is directly testing the red lines established by President Trump, who explicitly warned the regime about killing protesters. The White House has stated it is "locked and loaded."
With every drop of blood spilled, the regime pushes Washington closer to action, risking a response that could be as swift as it is devastating. President Trump’s credibility is on the line, and Tehran is foolishly betting against it.
The trajectory from here is violent and irreversible. The West must look at these protests with clear eyes. This is not a request for reform; it is the end of the 1979 experiment. The Iranian people are tearing down the walls. Whether the regime will fall in this round of protests remains unclear. But make no mistake. The Islamic Republic is on its way out.
Saeed Ghasseminejad is a senior adviser for Iran and financial economics at FDD, specializing in Iran’s economy, financial markets, sanctions, and illicit finance.