As the war with Iran enters its second month and a ground invasion of southern Lebanon takes shape, IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir has issued one of the clearest warnings yet to Israel’s political leadership about a deepening manpower crisis.
Speaking at a security cabinet meeting on Wednesday, Zamir warned he is “raising 10 red flags before the IDF collapses into itself,” according to reporting by The Jerusalem Post’s Keshet Neev and Yonah Jeremy Bob.
Zamir’s worrying remarks, which quickly leaked to the press, reverberated across the political and security establishment. Opposition figures blamed the coalition for an impending security crisis, as some coalition lawmakers accused the IDF chief of hurting morale.
Zamir’s warning was inevitable
But from the military’s perspective, Zamir’s warning was inevitable. It is the latest in a series of escalated warnings by IDF officials in recent months, as repeated reserve call-ups combined with regular operations on several fronts place ever-growing pressure on a shrinking pool of manpower. Zamir could have phrased it differently, but the essence would be the same.
In the months leading up to Operation Roaring Lion, the government was consumed by its own internal crisis over efforts to formulate a haredi (ultra-Orthodox) conscription bill. In recent weeks, the government – without the haredi parties and under new leadership in the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee – moved to rapidly advance controversial legislation seen as insufficient for addressing the IDF’s needs.
Critics argued the bill was designed not to solve the manpower crisis, but rather to preserve coalition stability by appeasing its ultra-Orthodox factions. Others said that the conscription bill, imperfect as it may be, is still a conscription bill, allowing Israel to take a long-needed step forward in integrating young haredi men into the army.
That came to an abrupt halt when Israel, alongside the United States, began striking Iran on February 28. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee chairman MK Boaz Bismuth announced the legislation would be “set aside” during the war, for the sake of national unity.
And as Israel’s political system delayed the conscription bill, its wartime adversaries took note. Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, the Iranian parliament speaker whom the Post reported is leading de-escalation talks with the United States, seized on Zamir’s warning. Writing on his social media accounts on Saturday, Ghalibaf accused Israel’s leadership of attempting to “ignore these warnings…by escalating and attacking” Iran.
“Iran’s fierce response will accelerate this ongoing collapse,” Ghalibaf threatened. His comments amount to no more than the usual rhetoric from Islamic regime officials, who frequently highlight internal Israeli divisions during periods of conflict. However, they do exploit a concerning underlying issue: Israel’s internal struggles are becoming more visible as they deepen, and its enemies are listening.
The operational response that Israel might not be able to sustain
The threat from Iran, Hezbollah, and the regime’s other proxies is real, and demands an operational response – one that the country, in its current state, might not be able to sustain.
Now, as the IDF stretches itself across several fronts in Iran and Lebanon, the government must stop delaying a conscription bill and avoid carrying out the structural changes required for the IDF to sustain its operations. A coalition that has at most six months left in power cannot responsibly commit the military and its pool of reservists to prolonged, multi-front conflicts while leaving the underlying manpower crisis unresolved.
In peace and especially in times of war, Israel needs real unity – and real unity means an equal sharing of the burden across Israeli society. It means expanding the pool of those who serve rather than continuing to rely on a sliver of society that has fought across all of Israel’s fronts for three years.
Replying to a question on Zamir’s warning during a Thursday press conference, IDF Spokesperson Brig.-Gen. Effie Defrin stated that the military is short roughly 15,000 soldiers, including some 8,000 combat troops. “The chief of staff is obligated to express his position regarding the IDF’s readiness, and what is required is to pass both the conscription law and the reserve service law,” he added.
In their comments, Zamir and Defrin made it clear that Netanyahu’s balancing act on the issue of haredi conscription is no longer tenable. The Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee must heed the IDF’s warning and return to the drawing board to produce an effective framework before the military reaches its limit.