The gaps between electoral polls published in Israel continue to generate significant interest ahead of the upcoming elections. While most polls project an average of around 52 seats for Netanyahu’s bloc, polls identified with the governing coalition estimate as many as 65 seats. This is a striking discrepancy, particularly given that prior to the Hamas terrorist attacks on October 7, 2023, the gap between polls stood at no more than four seats.
However, Israel is not unique in this regard. A similar phenomenon is currently unfolding in Hungary, where two parallel perceptions of public opinion appear to coexist. The elections there provide a compelling case study of the divergence between polling institutes – a divergence that undoubtedly shapes voter perceptions before they head to the ballot box.
This past Sunday, elections were held in Hungary, and this time Prime Minister Viktor Orbán faced a significant political challenge. Orbán has been a central figure in Hungarian politics since the country’s first democratic elections in 1990, following more than four decades of Communist rule. At that time, his party, Fidesz (the Hungarian Civic Alliance), received 9% of the vote and secured 22 out of 386 parliamentary seats.
Orbán’s major breakthrough came in the 1998 elections, when Fidesz won 29% of the vote and 148 seats, becoming the largest party in parliament, even though the Socialist Party received more votes but fewer seats. Following those elections, Orbán formed a government. However, in 2002, despite strengthening his party’s position, he was sent into opposition after the Socialists formed a coalition with the liberal party.
After eight years in opposition, Orbán returned to power, with Fidesz winning 53% of the vote and securing an absolute majority of 263 seats. In 2011, backed by a two-thirds parliamentary majority, Orbán reformed the electoral system into a more majoritarian “winner-takes-all” model, under which the candidate finishing first in a district wins the seat even without an absolute majority.
At the same time, the size of parliament was reduced to 199 members. Since this reform, Orbán’s party has won three consecutive elections, most recently securing 54% of the vote and 135 seats.
When polls tell different stories
However, in the 2026 elections, his rule faced a real test. Polls that were aligned with the opposition showed that the Tisza party, led by Péter Magyar, was ahead by more than 10%, while polls that were aligned with the coalition predicted an Orbán victory by at least 5%.
The question, therefore, is: Which polls should have been trusted? The answer is far from straightforward. In the 2022 elections, there were no major discrepancies between polling institutes, most of which predicted an Orbán victory by approximately 5%. In reality, he won by more than 15%. Two institutes – Társadalomkutató and Medián – came closest to the actual results, forecasting a gap of around 10%. Yet this time, even they diverged dramatically: the former predicted an Orbán victory by 10%, while the latter forecast a 23% victory for Magyar.
With almost all of the votes counted in Sunday’s election, Magyar’s Tisza party won a super-majority of 138 seats (53.6% of the vote) in the 199-seat parliament. Orbán’s Fidesz party secured only 55 seats (37.8% of the vote).
In conclusion, much like in Israel, the polling landscape in Hungary presented a fragmented and often confusing picture. The gaps between projections are not merely statistical; they carry real political implications, as they may influence voter behavior itself.
The key lesson for the Israeli public from the Hungarian case may be that polls should be treated with considerable caution. Not every projection accurately reflects reality, and the gap between polling forecasts and actual election results may be far greater than it appears.
The writer is a lecturer and research fellow at the University of South Wales, UK. He is the author of Collapse: Israeli Labor Party 1992-2024.