As Israel approached the end of the third week of the Operation Roaring Lion, the balance between the political blocs remained unchanged, but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud continued to strengthen at the expense of Otzma Yehudit, according to a Maariv poll published Friday.
The survey found that Likud rose by one seat this week to 28 mandates, one more than in the previous two polls and two more than before the outbreak of the war. Otzma Yehudit, by contrast, fell by one seat to seven, down two from its standing before the war.
Gadi Eisenkot also continued to lose ground, with Yashar! under his leadership dropping by two seats to 11. Former prime minister Naftali Bennett slipped by one seat to 21, though those losses were offset within the opposition bloc by gains for Yisrael Beytenu, up two to 10, and Yesh Atid, up one to eight.
The poll also tested a joint run by Bennett 2026 and Yashar!, led by Bennett. In that scenario, the merged list won 33 seats, one more than the parties would receive separately, making it the largest list in the Knesset.
Even in that scenario, however, Yesh Atid dropped by one seat to seven, leaving the opposition bloc at 60 seats, unchanged from the separate-run scenario. The coalition bloc also remained unchanged at 50 seats.
Parties failing to cross the electoral threshold in that scenario were Religious Zionist Party and Blue and White, each at 2.9%, while the Reservists and Balad each stood at 1.4%.
Israelis report relatively strong sense of personal security
The survey also found that 43% of Israelis said they felt a high sense of personal security amid the war against Iran and Hezbollah. Another 37% described their sense of security as reasonable, while 20% said it was low.
A high sense of personal security was more common among coalition voters, with 67% reporting it. By contrast, most opposition voters and undecided respondents were more likely to say their personal security was reasonable or low.
Residents of the Haifa and northern districts reported lower levels of personal security than the national average. Only 33% said they felt highly secure, while 37% described their security as reasonable, and 30% said it was low.
When asked what outcome would justify ending the war against Iran, 39% of respondents pointed to replacing the current regime in Tehran, making it the leading answer by a wide margin. Far fewer chose the complete destruction of Iran’s nuclear project, at 18%, or the destruction of its missile and drone systems, at 11%.
Regarding Hezbollah, Israelis identified two leading goals that would justify ending the war: disarming the group of its heavy weapons, cited by 29% of respondents, and Hezbollah’s unconditional surrender, cited by 23%.
Among coalition voters, Hezbollah’s surrender was the top priority, chosen by 34%. Among opposition voters, the leading goal was disarmament of the group’s heavy weapons, chosen by 35%.
The findings come from a Maariv poll conducted by the Lazar Research Institute, headed by Dr. Menachem Lazar, in cooperation with Panel4All.
The survey was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, March 18-19, among 500 respondents representing a sample of Israel’s adult population aged 18 and over, including both Jews and Arabs. The margin of error is 4.4%.