European intelligence chiefs are pessimistic about the chances of an agreement being reached this year to end Russia's war in Ukraine, despite US President Donald Trump's assertions that US-brokered talks have brought the prospect of a deal "reasonably close."
The heads of five European spy agencies, who spoke to Reuters in recent days on condition of anonymity, said Russia did not want to end the war quickly. Four of them said Moscow was using the talks with the US to push for sanctions relief and business deals.
The talks, the latest round of which took place in Geneva this week, are "negotiation theater," one European intelligence chief said.
The remarks point to a striking gulf in thinking between European capitals and the White House, which Ukraine says wants to clinch a peace agreement by June ahead of the US congressional mid-term elections in November. Trump says he believes Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to make a deal.
"Russia is not seeking a peace agreement. They are seeking their strategic goals, and those have not changed," one of the European intelligence chiefs said. These include the removal of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukraine becoming a "neutral" buffer between the West and Russia.
The main issue, a second intelligence chief said, is that Russia neither wants nor needs a quick peace, and its economy is "not on the verge of collapse."
While the intelligence chiefs did not say how they obtained their information, their services use human sources, intercepted communications, and various other means. All said they consider Russia a priority target for intelligence gathering.
Russia's foreign ministry did not immediately respond to a written request for comment.
Putin says he is ready for peace, but on his terms. Russian officials say European governments have repeatedly been wrong in their assessments of Russia.
Intense diplomacy
Ukrainian and Russian negotiators met this week for their third US-mediated meeting of 2026 without any breakthrough on key sticking points, including territory.
After the meetings, Zelensky expressed frustration with the lack of meaningful progress and suggested that the Russians were more interested in discussing the conflict's historical roots than in reaching a near-term agreement.
"I don't need historical shit to end this war and move to diplomacy. Because it's just a delay tactic," he wrote on X on Thursday.
Moscow wants Kyiv to withdraw its forces from the remaining 20% of the eastern Donetsk region that Russia does not control, something Ukraine refuses to do.
The second spy chief said Russia could be satisfied territorially if it obtained the rest of Donetsk, but that would not fulfill its objective of overthrowing Zelensky's pro-Western government.
A third intelligence chief said there was a misplaced belief that Ukraine ceding Donetsk would quickly lead to a peace deal.
"In the case of the Russians getting these concessions, I think that this is maybe the beginning of actual negotiations," the official said, predicting Russia would then make further demands.
The spy chief, without providing evidence, also expressed concern over the "very limited" level of skill in negotiating with Russia across the West, including on the European side, which Zelensky says should have an active role in the talks.
The US side is led by US Envoy Steve Witkoff, a real estate developer and long-time friend of Trump, and Jared Kushner, the US president's son-in-law.
Both men have worked on other conflicts on Trump's behalf, but neither is a trained diplomat nor has any specific expertise in Russia or Ukraine.
In response to a request for comment, White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said anonymous critics had done nothing to help end the war in Ukraine. "President Trump and his team have done more than anyone to bring both sides together to stop the killing and deliver a peace deal."
'Very high risks'
Two of the officials said Moscow was trying to separate the talks into two different tracks - one focused on the war and a second focused on bilateral deals with the US that would include sanctions relief for Russia.
Zelensky said his intelligence services have told him that US and Russian negotiators have been discussing bilateral cooperation deals worth as much as $12 trillion, proposed by Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev.
The European officials did not provide details on these discussions, though Dmitriev himself wrote on X on Wednesday that the "portfolio of potential US-Russia projects is over $14 trillion."
The second spy chief said the offer was designed to appeal to both Trump and Russian oligarchs who have not profited from the war because of sanctions but whose loyalty Putin needs to retain as Russia's economy faces stiffening headwinds.
The official said that ultimately, Russia was a "resilient society" that could endure hardship.
However, the third official said Russia faced "very high" financial risks in the second half of 2026, citing, among other factors, Moscow's limited access to capital markets due to sanctions and high borrowing costs.
Some analysts say Russia's economy is somewhere between stagnation and recession, following just 1% growth last year.
The central bank's key interest rate, which shapes borrowing costs, stands at 15.5%. The liquid portion of Russia's "rainy day" fund, which the government uses to cover its budget deficit, has more than halved since the 2022 invasion.