October 7 was not merely a security breach; it was a fundamental turning point that shattered a global delusion. To understand why Israel was so catastrophically blindsided, we must examine the fact that for decades, the West and Israel operated under the comfortable delusion that money, prosperity, and the responsibilities of governance could “tame” an ideological movement.
This catastrophic error in Gaza, the belief that Hamas could be “bought,” was not just an Israeli failure. It is the exact same flaw currently poisoning the international approach to the Islamic Republic of Iran, particularly regarding its nuclear program.
The illusion of prosperity
Prior to October 7, Israel and the United States – operating under the assumption that economic prosperity could tame radicalism – approved the flow of vast amounts of capital into the Gaza Strip.
High-paying work permits were issued for Gazans to work in Israel, and the Strip saw the rise of modern shopping centres and palm-fringed boulevards.
The assumption was simple: If we give them a middle-class life, they won’t want to lose it. We believed that Hamas, burdened by the duties of statecraft and the management of a growing economy, would choose the survival of its “mini-state” over the bloody pursuit of its charter. We assumed they knew that a major attack would mean their total destruction, and that they feared that destruction.
The reality of the death cult
We were wrong. October 7 proved that jihadist forces do not view the world through the lens of material profit and loss. For them, this world is an “abode of passage,” a temporary and hollow stage. Prosperity is not a goal; it is a tactical lull used for “Taqiyya” (strategic deception) while they prepare for the only world that matters: the afterlife – as they see it.
In this ideology, life is not something to be protected; it is a currency to be spent.
When a movement views its own children as future martyrs, uses its civilians as human shields to gain divine and political merit, and values a glorious death over a comfortable life, traditional economic leverage is useless. You cannot deter those who perceive their own annihilation as a shortcut to paradise.
From diplomatic deception to nuclear catastrophe
The most dangerous application of this failed Western logic is the ongoing attempt to contain the Islamic Republic of Iran through traditional diplomacy.
In the logic of the civilized world, negotiations are a tool for sovereign states to reach a consensus based on national interests, with the ultimate goal of honoring an agreement. However, in the Jihadist logic of the Islamic Republic, negotiation is merely a tactical maneuver designed to buy time and deceive the opponent.
History has shown that for this regime, an agreement is not a commitment but a smokescreen. Any agreement reached with such a force is nothing more than a precursor to an October 7 on a global, catastrophic scale. We must stop asking if they are “rational” enough to avoid using a nuclear weapon; the answer lies in their own history.
A regime that is capable of massacring over 40,000 of its own defenceless citizens with military weapons in a matter of days during civil unrest will not hesitate for a second to pull the nuclear trigger on the US and Israel, should it acquire nuclear warheads and the ICBMs to deliver them.
For a leadership that views its own population as expendable, the concept of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) does not exist.
Furthermore, the world must realize that the stakes have changed. Even as its proxies are dismantled and its high-ranking commanders are eliminated, the Islamic regime’s ideological core remains unchanged. Within this ideological framework, inflicting serious harm on perceived enemies, even at the cost of self-sacrifice, can be regarded as an acceptable price in pursuit of what is seen as a divine mission.
If the West continues to treat this regime with an apocalyptic worldview as a partner for dialogue, it isn’t just making a diplomatic error; it is inviting a nuclear October 7 from which there will be no recovery.
The Arab Oct. 7: Iran’s attacks collapse coexistence
This moment came when Iranian regime missiles and drones targeted the UAE, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia.
The pragmatic and rational approach adopted by several Arab states failed to moderate the erratic behavior of the ideological regime ruling Iran. Arab nations pursued coexistence through trade, financial engagement, and, in Qatar’s case, political alignment with Islamist movements. The outcome proved catastrophic.
Despite extensive trade and financial ties with Tehran, the UAE has been targeted more than Israel itself. Qatar, meanwhile, reportedly lost nearly 17% of its liquid gas capacity, amounting to an estimated annual revenue loss of $20 billion.
Why?
Because the regime in Tehran resents the Arab world’s vision of development, stability, and prosperity, a model increasingly admired by ordinary Iranians.
As long as this regime remains in power, sustainable regional development will remain impossible, as any progress can be quickly reduced to ashes.
It is a well-established economic truth that capital is timid, fleeing at the first sign of instability. International investors and global markets understand the risks of coexistence with an unpredictable ideological regime that prioritizes revolution and terror over peace and prosperity.
Just as Israel could not live peacefully alongside Hamas and Hezbollah, Arab states will struggle to achieve lasting stability while the ideological center of regional militancy remains in Tehran.
Any support for “peace” with this regime is ultimately little more than a temporary plaster over a deep and widening wound.
The long-term peace and prosperity of the Arab countries neighboring Iran are inseparable from the interests of both the Iranian people and Israelis: The end of the regime in Tehran and of the ideology that has destabilized the region for decades.
The writer is an Iranian journalist and former editor-in-chief of ManotoTV.