A rare collision that will leave behind a new crater is expected on Wednesday, when a massive piece of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket crashes into the Moon at seven times the speed of sound. The impact will occur on the side of the Moon facing Earth, near Einstein crater, and could raise a cloud of dust and rock fragments that may remain visible through sensitive telescopes for several minutes.
In Israel, the impact is expected at around 9:35 a.m., making local observation extremely difficult because of the daylight.
The object heading toward the lunar surface is the spent upper stage of a Falcon 9 rocket launched from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida on January 15, 2025. The rocket carried two privately operated spacecraft intended to land on the Moon: Blue Ghost, built by the US company Firefly, and Resilience, operated by Japan’s ispace. After the spacecraft separated from the rocket, the upper stage remained in a high, unstable orbit that crossed the Moon’s path.
For more than a year, the rocket component drifted through space under the gravitational influence of Earth, the Moon, and the Sun. In May, experts tracking objects in space noticed that its trajectory was set to end in a direct collision with the Moon.
According to the latest calculations, the impact will occur on August 5 at around 6:35 a.m. UTC, at a speed of approximately 2.43 kilometers per second, or about 8,700 kph.
Massive explosion via kinetic energy creating new crater
The rocket stage is approximately 12 meters long and four meters in diameter, with an estimated mass of four tons. The energy released at the moment of impact is expected to be comparable to the explosion of approximately three tons of TNT. This will not be an explosive charge or a planned detonation. Instead, the object’s enormous kinetic energy will be converted into heat and shock waves, shattering the rocket and throwing large quantities of lunar soil into the air.
The initial flash is expected to last less than one second. Scientists estimate that it will be relatively faint, partly because the rocket will strike an illuminated area of the Moon, where reflected light from the surface could conceal it. An ordinary amateur telescope may not be able to capture the moment of impact, and it will certainly not be visible to the naked eye.
The researchers’ main interest, however, is not the flash but the cloud that will form immediately afterward. The collision is expected to send dust, rock fragments, and pieces of metal high above the lunar surface. Because the Moon’s gravity is six times weaker than Earth’s and it has no atmosphere or wind, the particles could remain suspended for several minutes before falling back to the surface.
Computer simulations published ahead of the event suggest that the main curtain of dust could rise to an altitude of 15 to 20 kilometers. In an optimistic scenario, a narrower jet of fast-moving particles could reach a height of 75 to 100 kilometers. Since the impact site is near the edge of the Moon’s visible disk, part of the dust cloud may extend beyond the illuminated edge and appear against the darkness of space.
The best viewing conditions are expected in the eastern United States and Canada, as well as across large parts of South America, where the event will take place during nighttime hours while the Moon is above the horizon. Researchers have emphasized that even there, there is no certainty that the cloud will be visible.
Its precise brightness will depend on the angle of impact, the composition of the ground, the rocket’s direction of travel during its final moments, and the size of the dust particles thrown into the air.
Professional astronomers plan to use high-speed cameras connected to telescopes, allowing them to capture multiple images every second. Amateur astronomers with suitable equipment have also been encouraged to try to document the event. Observations are expected to continue after the moment of impact, since the development of the dust cloud during the following minutes may be the clearest and most scientifically significant part of the event.
The impact is expected to excavate a crater approximately 20 to 30 meters in diameter and around five meters deep. A crater of that size would be too small to see from Earth, but spacecraft orbiting the Moon will be able to photograph it.
NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and South Korea’s Danuri spacecraft are expected to compare images taken before the event with those captured afterward. Danuri is expected to pass within several kilometers of the rocket stage about two minutes before impact.
This will be only the second known case in which a piece of rocket debris has accidentally crashed into the Moon. In March 2022, a rocket body attributed to a Chinese mission struck the Moon’s far side and created a double crater. Since the collision occurred on the side that cannot be seen from Earth, it was not documented in real time and was discovered later in satellite images.
Rockets smashed into the moon deliberately
Spacecraft and rocket components have previously been deliberately crashed into the Moon as part of scientific experiments.
During the Apollo program, NASA crashed rocket stages and parts of lunar modules into the surface to create seismic waves, which were measured by instruments left behind by astronauts. In 2009, the LCROSS spacecraft crashed near the lunar south pole as part of a search for water ice, sending up a plume of material that was analyzed using scientific instruments.
This collision was not planned. Space experts said it could have been prevented by changing the rocket stage’s trajectory after launch and moving it into a stable orbit around the Sun. The event poses no danger to people or equipment, but it illustrates the growing difficulty of managing debris in the region of space between Earth and the Moon.
The concern is expected to become more significant in the coming years as the number of spacecraft, landers, and satellites operating around the Moon increases. The United States, China, and commercial companies are planning crewed missions and long-term infrastructure on the lunar surface.
Particles ejected in a similar collision could travel hundreds of kilometers, damage equipment, contaminate research areas, or endanger astronauts outside protected structures.
Measurements collected on Wednesday will help researchers study how the debris spreads and prepare for future impacts.