War simulation finds that coalition-building in Middle East key to dealing with a nuclear Iran

SIMLAB simulates policy developments.

By YAAKOV LAPPIN
MK TZIPI LIVNI speaks at the SIMLAB war-game simulation at Tel Aviv University yesterday. (photo credit: SIMLAB)
MK TZIPI LIVNI speaks at the SIMLAB war-game simulation at Tel Aviv University yesterday.
(photo credit: SIMLAB)
A war-game simulation examining what might happen the day after Iran violates a nuclear agreement ended with the conclusion that Israel requires regional coalition-building abilities, not just military might, organizers said Tuesday.
The game was held on Monday by SIMLAB, which simulates policy developments.
The players found that Israel would have to display “flexibility that it did not have to produce in the past. Israel also has to move past old views of threats and regional players, old and new, and prepare accordingly,” SIMLAB said.
The simulation, held at Tel Aviv University, envisaged developments on the day after Iran signs a nuclear agreement with world powers.
According to the results, Tehran attacked Islamic State in Baghdad, before violating its nuclear agreement, breaking through to nuclear weapons and threatening unconventional attacks weeks later.
The simulation, held in cooperation with the Yuval Ne’eman Workshop for Science, Technology and Security and the Moshe Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University, looked at the dynamics of violent processes, identified potential areas of cooperation for Israel and marked out the most urgent threats.
Players represented diplomatic, security and strategic decision makers in Israel, some of the participants were former senior officials.
They represented the US, Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Iran, Russia, Iraq, Hezbollah and the media.
MK Tzipi Livni (Zionist Union), who was present at the simulation, said, “It is important to remember that so long as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not in the process of diplomatic negotiations, our ability to be part of a coalition of moderate states against regional threats remains out of reach.
We cannot create partnerships without solving the conflict.”
Dr. Haim Assa, chief of SIMLAB, said the central conclusion of the war game is that in a scenario in which Iran violates a nuclear agreement and threatens unconventional attack, Israel’s coalition forming abilities would be key to successfully dealing with the challenges of a nuclear Iran.