Scott Walker, as of today stands the best chance of winning as a non-establishment candidate. Unheard of six years ago, Scott Walker gained national recognition after Winning three races for governor of Wisconsin in five years. After initially getting elected in 2011, the governor enacted right-to-work legislation, giving workers the right not be beholden to unions for employment. Union bosses, now infuriated, believing they had the same clout as in the 70s, gathered enough signatures to bring Governor Walker to a recall. With only eleven percent of American workers part of a union today, compared to thirty plus in the 70s, the unions grossly miscalculated their influence. With walker winning the recall vote by a larger margin than his first successful run a short two years prior. The unions were given a decimating blow. The average American worker no longer finds it necessary to pay exorbitant fees, so union bosses live lavish lifestyles, and not get much in return. After winning reelection in 2014, he solidified his place on the national stage. His policies have led donors across the nation to believe that Wisconsin's evidence of conservative reform working well, in a purple state leaning left, was enough to convince republican donors of backing the governor.
Where Jeb Bush will have an outright advantage over the field, will be his unrivaled fundraising machine. Jeb has another persuasive argument in the fact that he was governor of Florida, where he remains popular, will be one of the most important, if not the most important state for republicans to win the Presidency. Bush has been criticized on the right for his backing of common core and his leniency on illegal immigration. Both highly polarized within the party and will stand as a huge test to wether or not he can convince enough conservatives, that he is in fact conservative.
With Ted Cruz and Ben Carson on the fringe of most polls, I'm giving them little to no chance of winning the nomination. Rand Paul being a libertarian who has fans on both sides, will need to do a lot of convincing, as he still has a slew of unpopular positions. None more at the forefront than his roller coaster positions on foreign policy, with little conviction on any position he takes.
Marco Rubio, will be the dark horse of the race, a leading contender a short time ago, before helping write the now infamous "gang of eight" bill. The bill, considered amnesty for illegal immigrants by its critics, evaporated his support among the grassroots almost overnight. Now that he has come out against that position, he will have his day in the sun to prove his case in the primaries. The primaries will be the spectacle that is expected, as candidates vie for position convincing republican voters that they stand the best chance of beating the democrats nominee.