This is a take off on an insightful Jerusalem Post analysis piece, dated January 16, 2017 by 

ANNA AHRONHEIM:
http://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/Analysis-If-the-US-Embassy-moves-to-Jerusalem-are-we-looking-at-a-new-intifada-478535

In making a decision under uncertainty, a useful tool is to consider what is the worst that is going to happen, and what is the probability that the worst will indeed occur.  The sky will not fall if the USA embassy is moved to Jerusalem.

 

Every and all declaration, conference finding, partition plan, white paper or accord has regarded Jerusalem as an international city and not as the capital of a Jewish country.  In 1947, a UN partition plan referred Jerusalem to a city administered by an international body whose exact political status would be determined through negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians.  It is as if we Israelis are not mature enough to know our own minds, but require guidance from countries more wise as to best handle our affairs.

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While moving the American embassy to Jerusalem will be welcomed by Israelis and some Jews in the Diaspora, it must be weighed against the potential security ramifications in Israel and across the Middle East.  Israelis are willing to risk losing  lives in terror attacks that are going to place whether or not the American embassy is moved.  There will be an increase in terror attacks where the attacker might use the embassy move as an excuse, but that is really nothing new.  We not looking at a full-blown intifada.

 

If Trump does decide to push forward with the move, it is very likely riots will break out across Muslim-majority countries targeting the US and Israel.  You have to assume that there will be violence and protests of some sort, whether it be ‘officially’ sanctioned by groups or if there will be protests against American embassies.

 

Almost all presidential candidates, including Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, made a pledge to move the embassy, but once inaugurated backed down on their promise, invoking an executive waiver to relocate the embassy stating that it was not in the American national interest.  I do not think that the EU or Muslim Brotherhood will begin a BDS program against the USA.  The Saudis will not stop the flow of oil.

 

While there may be an increase in lone wolf attacks there is no real motivation by any real serious organization, be it Hezbollah, Hamas, PLO or the Palestinian Authority, to want to start a full-blown intifada over the move.  Hezbollah and Hamas are not looking for any incidents with Israel as they are too preoccupied.

 

In my opinion,  it is a matter of “Who’s afraid of the big bad wolf”.  Let’s get on with it, and the sooner the better. 


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Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this blog article are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official position or viewpoint of The Jerusalem Post. Blog authors are NOT employees, freelance or salaried, of The Jerusalem Post.

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