Upgrading Israeli nuclear deterrence; Core consequences of P5+1 agreement with Iran
Current instabilities in the Middle East will generate compelling reasons for Israel to re-examine its traditional posture of nuclear ambiguity.
By PROFESSOR LOUIS RENÉ BERES, ADMIRAL LEON "BUD" EDNEY
April 12, 2015 15:12
Officials wait for a meeting with officials from P5+1, the European Union and Iran at the Beau Rivage Palace Hotel in Lausanne March 31, 2015..
(photo credit: REUTERS)
As a result of the P5+1 agreement with Iran, badly brokered by the president of the United States, Israel could be forced to substantially upgrade its nuclear deterrence posture. Simultaneously, if the pact actually enters into force, Jerusalem will have to fend off increasing calls for Israel to join the 1968 Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) - calls from varied national sources, stemming from predictably propagandistic claims that now "even Iran has renounced a nuclear weapons option."
In law, war and genocide are not mutually exclusive. On several occasions, Iran's supreme leaders have called openly for Israel's eradication. Israel, in response, is entitled to do whatever is needed to survive, including pertinent refinements to its policies on preemption, deterrence, and active defense. One key element of these needed refinements will have to involve the country's security posture of "deliberate nuclear ambiguity."Till today, this posture has seemingly made sense. Both friends and enemies of the Jewish State already recognize that Israel possesses military nuclear capabilities that are (1) survivable; and (2) capable of penetrating all enemy air defense and ballistic missile defense systems.