Will King Bibi get a 'crown prince'? – analysis

Netanyahu has been careful during his 13 years in power to never anoint a successor. He never appointed a vice prime minister.

By GIL HOFFMAN
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with Gideon Sa’ar in the Knesset (photo credit: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM)
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with Gideon Sa’ar in the Knesset
(photo credit: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM)
The Likud is finally having its first seriously-contested leadership race in 14 years, yet less than half the party’s members who pay their dues by standing order are expected to vote, because of the weather.
However pathetic that may be, it matters less because there is very little chance that a new Likud leader will be elected on Thursday.
What could happen, however, in Thursday’s Likud primary is Israel could get a new crown prince.
Netanyahu has been careful during his 13 years in power to never anoint a successor. He never appointed a vice prime minister, and when he goes abroad, he appoints a different interim prime minister every time. If any Likudnik got too powerful they were made to feel uncomfortable until they left.
Gideon Sa’ar took a break from politics but remained in Likud. Moshe Kahlon, Moshe Ya’alon, Bennie Begin, Dan Meridor and Yitzhak Mordechai tried their luck in other parties, though most of them returned to Likud later on.
That is why the significant number when the results are announced on Friday morning will not be 50% but 30%.
If Sa’ar, who is from Tel Aviv, hits his home area code of three, he will be seen as Netanyahu’s most likely successor, waiting in the wings for the prime minister’s legal cases to drag him down.
If he gets Jerusalem’s area code of two, he will be no better than former MK Moshe Feiglin, who won 23% of the vote against Netanyahu and endorsed him in this race on Wednesday.
If the weather is really bad, Sa’ar could approach the northern area code of four, which would be an impressive accomplishment
Without results to look at Thursday night, the focus will be on the voter turnout, with an assumption by both candidates’ campaign teams that high turnout is good for the incumbent and low turnout favors the underdog.
That is why Netanyahu, who controls the party’s administration, ensured that polling stations would be open from 9 a.m. until 11 p.m. in order to maximize turnout.
The turnout numbers as polls close will already indicate whether another candidate has tried to defeat Netanyahu and ended up humiliated, or whether King Bibi has a new crown prince anointed against his will.