Critical Currents: Automatic pilot?

How can we keep the country on a steady course until a new government is firmly in place?

By NAOMI CHAZAN
Israelis now face the enormous difficulty of living with the massive uncertainty of political transition. On the one hand, we cannot allow the country, presently on a tortuous path domestically as well as internationally, to proceed on automatic pilot. On the other hand, we will not be able to afford the introduction of major changes that might adversely affect our future. In these circumstances, how is it possible to keep the country on a steady course until the political dust has settled and a newly elected government is firmly in place? This dilemma has not escaped the candidates in the Kadima primary, nor has it gone unnoticed by their major rivals in the Likud and Labor. Characteristically, all eyes have focused on the fate of the diplomatic process under a caretaker government. The Likud and its allies on the Right have cautioned against proceeding with the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations during the impending political hiatus. Proponents of the resolution of the conflict in Labor and Meretz have advocated their completion during the forthcoming interregnum. WHAT ALL sides have tended to ignore is the equally turbulent domestic scene, which cannot remain unattended in the interim. Here, too, the challenges and the dangers are immense. Indecision or, alternately, politically skewed policies threaten to wreak havoc not only with the economy and social welfare, but also - and most fundamentally - with the basic structures of democratic government. How the new prime minister approaches these issues is the key to understanding what should be done - and what should not even be attempted - during this period. A mixture of prudence and courage (admittedly in short supply in our political firmament) is needed in large doses in the coming months. The role of civil society, that expanding network of voluntary organizations striving for social change and equality, is therefore more important at this juncture than ever before. Non-governmental actors, as well as individual citizens, must be prepared to prevent the abuse of power by a temporary coalition, while insisting on dealing with immediate problems both expeditiously and fairly. A sensitive and politically astute leadership would do well to listen carefully to these voices, shunning the temptation to create incontrovertible facts, while simultaneously exhibiting the audacity to take action where immobility would be nothing short of disastrous. This is a daunting task, especially for a new and untried prime minister entering office under inauspicious conditions and constantly subjected to assaults by ravenous political opponents. Neither of the obvious choices on how to proceed provides a ready answer to the present conundrum of governance. The first option, to call for new elections as soon as possible, may unquestionably limit the damage. But it provides no clue as to how to address pressing policy questions. Doing nothing runs the risk of exacerbating real problems on the economic and social, not to speak of the diplomatic, fronts. Conversely, trying to form a durable coalition now may be as impractical as it is dangerous. Since only Labor has a stake in maintaining a Kadima-led government at all costs, other potential partners will try to exact an exorbitant price for their participation. The insistence of Shas on the restoration of prohibitive child allotments is just one example. Acceding to such demands could not only prove a major political liability down the line, but would also wreak havoc on demographic and employment patterns. THERE IS no reason why the new prime minister has to be locked in such a binary trap. There is a third alternative: to call for new elections immediately, thus thwarting any untoward pressures and the damage they entail, while concurrently setting in motion longer-term policies that any elected government can fruitfully pursue in the future. This mixture of prudence and daring may yet prove to be the only way to circumvent the prospect of a country moving forward on automatic pilot. It may also provide a modicum of substantive political continuity. Several examples of such an approach on internal matters may serve as useful guidelines. Economic issues cannot be ignored during the next few months, particularly given the turbulence of the global economy and its imminent effects on the local scene. Caution dictates firmly rebuffing particularistic interests. Surely, however, this is not enough: Tightening the official shoestrings must come together with the launching of a social welfare package that will cushion the effects of an economic slowdown on the most vulnerable segments of the population. In the same vein, it might be tempting to bow to demands for increased support for independent (haredi) schools, even though they are not subject to the requirements of the core curriculum. To do so, however, would mean further undermining the already fragile and underachieving general education streams. The best possible course would be to take advantage of the economic uncertainty to systematically upgrade educational investments - a long overdue reordering of priorities that can be set in motion now. Another area that requires attention immediately, but is under threat of further erosion, is that of law and order. The continuous efforts to dabble with the standing of the courts, and particularly to curtail their right of judicial review, must be quashed before they gain further traction. At the same time, the long and difficult task of restoring confidence in law enforcement agencies must commence forthwith. Here community involvement is irreplaceable. Other pressing challenges abound. None can be treated during this period of transition - or for that matter in more predictable times - without applying the one common yardstick that has been so elusive in recent years: the extent to which policies truly serve the common interests of all sectors of society. Here there is no substitute for the watchdog role of civil society organizations separately and in coalition: Their engagement in these tumultuous times is the single most important mechanism to prevent gross inequities and at the same time avoid immobilization. The first few days of the post-Olmert period are truly critical. His successor's ability to sidestep the inherent pitfalls in the two obvious, but hardly exclusive, directions available will prove to be the key not only to political survival, but also to opening up new prospects for equitable societal change.