Livni's challenge

Israel cannot afford a rudderless policy drift, for months on end, as party politics sort themselves out.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFF
Livni 224.88 (photo credit: GPO)
Livni 224.88
(photo credit: GPO)
Israelis woke up Thursday morning to discover that Tzipi Livni had defeated Shaul Mofaz in the race to become leader of Kadima by a mere 431 votes. Most pre-election surveys, and all the exit polls, had forecast a 10-point margin of victory. With polling stations allowed to stay open late, disqualified ballots, and erroneous TV surveys showing Livni winning easily before voting had even ended, Mofaz had good reason to feel deeply aggrieved. But in defeat, he demonstrated a certain political nobility - first, graciously accepting the outcome, and then announcing a "time out" from politics. That departure, unless he can be prevailed upon to change his mind, serves as an indictment of the Kadima election process and its media coverage, immediately complicates Livni's road forward, and does Israel's wider interest no favors. Mofaz has been the minister heading Israel's strategic dialogue with the US over Iran - an area where we can afford no vacuum. Livni replaces Ehud Olmert as head of Kadima. Her task now is to replace him as prime minister, by building a viable coalition. Likud leader Binyamin Netanyahu believes that were general elections held now, his party would win the most mandates. Can Livni nonetheless entice him to join her government? Highly unlikely. Labor's Ehud Barak claims, unconvincingly, that he's not afraid of elections, allowing that a spell in the opposition might do his party good. And Shas will drive its usual tough bargain, seeking financial inducements in return for supporting a Livni-led coalition. So staving off elections will not be easy - and, given the momentous decisions the next prime minister will have to make, perhaps not even desirable. Since her entry onto the national stage, Livni has become increasingly confident in public. And her "clean" image may have gotten her this far. But now, as party leader and possible premier, more is demanded. Assembling a coalition and handing out portfolios alone does not advance the national interest. What matters is an agenda - a vision. DOMESTICALLY, we'd like to see Livni advocate reform of the political system to promote representative government and diminish the influence of sectarian parties; to see her reach out to citizens on both Right and Left who are alienated from the system and to advocate respect for tradition and religious pluralism. Let's see her address our chronic water shortage by supporting desalination and hear her views on environmental issues. Let her advocate for public transportation and commit to investing in education. Does she support national service for all? But it is foreign and security policy that will dominate the next prime minister's agenda. Livni must define the path for addressing the Iranian nuclear threat. In trying for an accommodation with relative moderates among the Palestinians, she needs to articulate how this is an Israeli interest, and needs to talk about the ticking diplomatic and demographic clocks. What does she think will happen when Mahmoud Abbas completes his term as Palestinian Authority president in January? Livni needs to tell Israelis where the negotiations stand, especially on Jerusalem and refugees. What steps are being taken to ensure that a "shelf agreement" doesn't come back to bite us should the Islamists take complete control of Palestinian affairs? And what are her - and Israel's - red lines in the negotiations? What's her plan for Gaza, where ever more extreme Hamas factions are solidifying power? How does she propose to keep the West Bank from becoming a launching pad for violence against Israel if the Palestinians get their state? She will also have the opportunity to take a fresh look at negotiations with Syria; the current approach of indirect talks does not instill confidence. A well-negotiated agreement with Syria is in Israel's strategic interest. But does she agree that the extent of any withdrawal from the Golan Heights must parallel the depth of the peace offered? Does she understand that the finer points of an accord, such as access to Israel's main natural water resource, Lake Kinneret, are critical? ISRAEL CANNOT afford a rudderless policy drift, for months on end, as party politics sort themselves out. This is a nation longing for honest, capable and inspiring leadership - urgently. Can Tzipi Livni provide it? 16,936 of Israel's voters said yes on Wednesday. Now she must persuade the rest.