The impact of impeachment on Israel? - analysis

WASHINGTON – The impeachment of US President Donald Trump is not expected to have an impact on US-Israel relations.While impeaching a sitting president is a drama on a historical scale that is being covered worldwide its actual consequences are expected to be found mostly on the domestic level.“This is a political process. There’s not anything judicial about it,” Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell told reporters on Tuesday. “The House made a partisan political decision to impeach. I would anticipate we will have a largely partisan outcome in the Senate.”McConnell’s last words are important. World leaders are watching this process unfold, and they understand given that the Republicans have a majority in Senate, Trump is here to stay. Thus, China is currently engaged with extensive trade talks with the US, and the Trump administration was able to finalize the USMCA trade agreement with Canada and Mexico. The same applies to the relations with Israel, which are expected to remain unchanged.The only impact the process could have is if Trump tries to change the conversation around America by focusing on foreign policy – making the case that he is busy running the world while democrats are only trying to interfere in his work. A political strategy like that could lead him to make surprising moves on the world stage, regarding any issue from Israel to Iran, China or North Korea.“The reality is that impeachment is not going to lead to the removal of President Trump,” Dennis Ross, Counselor at the Irwin Levy Family Program on the US-Israel Strategic Relationship in the Washington Institute, told the Jerusalem Post.Ross, the former US point man in the peace process for both George H. W. Bush’s and Bill Clinton’s administrations, told the Post that “while this is certainly a distraction for President Trump, he has an interest in showing he is doing the nation’s business. I expect little change in the Administration’s policy toward the region – though Trump’s interest in doing deals will likely become even more pronounced,” he continued. “If the Iranians prove willing at some point – and I don’t rule that out – I expect that he will want to do a deal. For him, the criteria will be to show he did better than Obama, and, of course, the Iranians will press for more from him in return.”Another option is the administration’s peace plan. The peace team is not hiding its desire to roll out the peace plan in reasonable timing before the 2020 elections, so there is a chance, even if a small one, for it to begin a process of negotiation between Israel and the Palestinians. So far, the administration has chosen not to reveal the plan, because the political stalemate in Israel could put the peace team in a frustrating position: The document has been ready for months, but no one can read it. Theoretically, Trump could decide to release the plan even before a new government is formed in a push for a foreign-policy agenda. However, as this idea has been discussed since Israel’s September elections, no decision has been made.David Makovsky, the Ziegler distinguished fellow and director of the project on Arab-Israel relations at the Washington Institute told the Post that “the partisan divide over impeachment – whether justified or not – is a sad reminder of the polarization in the US today ... It is also a reminder that Trump in 2020 will be focused on playing off impeachment to secure his reelection, and everything will be subordinated to this for him ... Parties in the Mideast, including Israel, will probably see how they can gain policy advantage in such a hyper-charged political environment 2020 while seeking to avoid – at least overtly – wading into the murky partisan waters.”