The recent Non-Farm Payrolls sent USD down against the single currency by 1.9% on Friday. Even
yen revolted, rose by 2.2%. The dollar chucked away its gain this year and returns to the level of December 3. Investors have been in a hurry to shuffle off the greenback before the weekend. The uprising euro postponed the dream-comes-true of Mario Draghi, who is looking for egalite et fraternite for EUR and USD. EUR and USD are not ready to stand in a row shoulder-to-shoulder, not yet. Why? Because at the moment it is hard to believe in the strength of the dollar and its advantage as a long-term investment, at least until the end of the year, when we can see the percentage of the Fed interest rates. In May payrolls added 38,000 jobs only instead of 162,000 expected. Private sector opened 25,000 vacancies. There are the most miserable results since 2010. The numbers provoke doubts in the temps of the economic growth of the most powerful country.
We were aware of the firing wind from high-tech companies. For example, Intel will reduce 11% of employees all over the world, including the USA, till the middle of 2017. The manufacturing and mining lost 18,000 and 10,000 jobs respectively. Fortunately, in general, the number of job losers and those, who completed their temporary contracts, decreased to 282,000 over the month. The unemployment rates are fluctuating around 5%. What do Americans will generate instead of commodities from the Earth subsoil? Obviously, the mining is losing attractiveness in the period of low oil prices. Exxon Mobile is turning to chemical industry from the oil research and delivering. Intel declares to produce more cloud technologies in place of chipsets and processors. Americans continue to create software and constructions, financial products and trading strategies.
The reason for the job cuts in the industry is high technologies. Human beings get freedom, while robots replace them in fabrics. A human being prefers a part-time job in order to spend time enjoying the dance of the butterflies and following the wind. 139,000 part-time jobs were offered in May! However, a lot of part-time workers would prefer FT positions, they just have not got a chance to receive it. The rise of numbers in the part-time workers reflects also cuts of working hours as a way to decrease a payment. However, an average payment per hour increases. In May, the average hourly earning reached $25,59, +5 cents to April. It means the economy is working good.
So who is hiring in the U.S.? Health care adds 46,000 FT positions in May in state and private sectors. Americans are getting older: this year the median age equals 38.1, whilst in 2014 it was 37.7. Thus, the need
in health care employees is reasonable. The salary is good enough to neglect the butterflies for a while.
The downtrend in the Non-farm Payrolls began in March 2016: from 233K in February to 186K in March, then after 123K in April we see 38K in May. Probably, the trend reflects the changes in a lifestyle of an average American citizen, rather than the low economic growth? Sounds too romantic to be true. To be precise, the dollar has been trembling in 2016 and returns to the beginning of December 2015. On Friday EURUSD climbed to the level 1.1367, so a hike in interest rates in June became unrealistic. This is the most important result of the recent NFP report. USD will rise again, the quotes will be corrected according to new data for sales and constructions, however, the serious interest from investors the greenback will attract as soon as the Fed will clarify its intention to raise the bank rates this year at least 3 times according to the program. Increasing interest rates the Federal Reserve will confirm the solid basis of the economic growth, the "correct" inflation level and the proper situation in the Labor Market when employment matches the needs of the citizens.