Not all Muslims are hateful and inclined to violence. Perhaps only a minority. However, all--or virtually all--those inciting and participating in mass violence are Muslims, and doing it in the name of Islam.
Work around that with you conceptions of being politically correct, opposition to profiling, and all the other stars in the firmament of what is humane.
Numbers are far from exact, but we hear of 3,000 or so French and British recruits to the Islamic State, and upwards of 5,000 Russians. "Jihadist John" announced beheadings with a British accent.
Several have gone from Israel to join IS. Those returning are jailed for dealing with the enemy. We hear of several Jews from Europe attracted to the cause. Go figure.
9-11 produced a war in Afghanistan, with damage to the predecessors of the Islamic State, but with no assurance that the fighters and their infrastructure were removed from Afghanistan and Pakistan. Their commitments lasted longer than that of the Americans.
Paris 13-11 is a smaller version of 9-11, but it comes only a week after deadly attacks over the Sinai and in Beirut. Those claiming credit are promising more.
Muslims should expect to suffer. Many already are. They should expect more ethnic profiling, even if kept informal. We'll hear stories from European Muslims parallel to what we hear from US Blacks. It will be damn near impossible to sort out the reports of activists, police, journalists, and politicians.
Justice gets lost when the flag goes up and warfare begins.
Right wing European parties are celebrating and polishing their campaigns.
Whether these events will overcome adherence to what is politically correct is an open question.
Politics prevails. Mahmoud Abbas was quick to condemn events in Paris but not Palestinian terror, without a word about recent killings in Israel. Indeed, he usually talks about Israeli police and soldiers killing Palestinians without justification, and he has named streets in Ramallah after Palestinians recently martyred after attacking Israeli civilians.
Bibi responded with his own predictable demand, i.e., that Palestinians, Europeans, and International Organization condemn the killing of Israeli civilians in the same tone as they condemn what happened in the Sinai, Beirut, and Paris.
Several of the militias fighting in Syria, including Hezbollah, also condemn the attack.
It'll take more than that for them to acquire certificates of kashrut with respect to their other actions.
Previous attacks, focused on French Jews, produced accusations from Palestinian activists that Israel did it in order to provoke the migration of Jews to Israel. So far at least one European Free Gaza activist is suggesting that Israel might have produced Saturday's massacre.
We should be careful about predicting any change in international activities toward Israel.
Politicians, government professionals, and activists work by routines. Once committed to a line of action, they find it easier to justify continuing rather than change.
However, there may be an impact from the combination of mass migration from the Middle East, the severity of the attacks at the heart of France, and findings that some of those involved were French and Belgian citizens and members of families that came from the Middle East years ago. Even before the attack, several European governments erected fences and closed their borders to migrants.
Security professionals are saying that a prolonged ground campaign is required to eradicate the Islamic State. Occasional air strikes are a way of great powers covering their ass by way of doing something, but do not accomplish what is necessary.
However, there are a series of political complications getting in the way of a serious operation.
- Barack Obama's timidness with respect to "American boots on the ground."
- Different goals of the major players, including US and Western European governments, Russia, Iran, Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia.
- A crucial conflict over what will become a "liberated Syria." Assad's retention of power, as apparently desired by Russia and Iran, or his ouster as wanted by just about all others?
- Turkey's opposition to providing serious weapons to the Kurds, which may be the Middle Eastern group most intent about fighting the Islamic State..
- The need to deal with the Islamic State and its offshoots not only across Syria and Iraq, but also in Libya, the Sinai, and Nigeria, each of which raises its own political problems.
- None of the above will deal with the IS affiliates operating among citizens of European countries. French and Belgian citizens participated in the Paris attack, and who knows how many more are in the migrant stream, and being incited in European mosques and madrasas. .
There will be some Europeans, Americans, and even Israelis who take Mahmoud Abbas at his word, and see a Palestinians state as breaking a log jam toward peace.
Don't count on it.
Israeli confidence in Palestinians is at one of its low points, maybe even below zero on a scale of one to one hundred.
Ethnic or religious profiling will be a challenge for for Western norms.
Two recent articles in The Economist dealt with the screening of passengers in airports. They described simple procedures applied to all by low-level, minimally trained, poorly paid, and easily bored personnel. The downing of the Russian plane in the Sinai came despite such procedures.
The journal drew a comparison with Israel, which devotes talent talking to passengers . As a result of what young, bright, and motivated "selectors" perceive, individuals are allowed to pass or are subject to further scrutiny. On several occasions I have received telephone calls from security personnel in distant airports asking about someone who seemed suspicious; the person either supplied my name or it was found in a search of the passenger's documents.
The Economic speculated, that other countries would be loathe to attempt the Israeli model. Israeli Jews are likely to pass through the inquiries here easily, and they provide the bulk of support for the practice.
Imagine the sign: This line for Muslims, other dark skinned people, and those sent to it by inspectors. Bring a lunch. It'll take a while. If you do not appear several hours in advance of your flight, you are likely to miss it.
We'll see what happens from among the numerous scenarios expressed by commentators. Prominent among them, given the constraints against major change, is More of the same. Also on the list are expectations that there'll be more catastrophes. The Islamic State has shown that it knows how to produce them.