US President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday night that it would halt its attacks against Iran until the regime can submit a “unified proposal” to discuss during negotiations, but Polymarket's prediction market still sees low chances for the ceasefire to be extended by Wednesday.
According to the platform's Iran section, there is a 20% chance that the ceasefire will be extended by April 22, with users not considering the current situation an official extension of the ceasefire.
Polymarket is a betting platform that claims to be a "prediction market," where people can bet on the result of a future event. The platform creates a situation, and users can bet on whether it will happen, with the "chance" of it happening determined by how many people bought the "yes" option versus the "no" option.
In its Iran section, Polymarket currently has several active bets, including the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, the official end of Operation Epic Fury, and the possibility of the Islamic regime collapsing.
Main predictions currently in Polymarket
According to this model, the main outcome is that the US and Iran sign a permanent peace deal by June 30, with 57% of users predicting this (values may vary in the embedded live chart). Additionally, 45% of the users believe that the peace deal will be signed by May 31.
This specific option, which has a trade volume of $37 million, defines a permanent peace deal as "any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran."
It also defines that "agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g., a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify."
This particular outcome has seen chances drastically decrease for upcoming dates, with April 22 having less than 1% chance of occurring, April 24 having a 3% chance, and April 30 having a 14% chance (recently down by 5%).
In other options, the market sees a 10% of chance for traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to return to normal, less than 4% chance that the Islamic regime falls by May 31, a 31% chance of the US invading Iran before 2027, a 15% chance for Kharg Island to be taken by the US by June 30, and a 37% chance of the regime surrendering their uranium stockpile by the end of the year.
Among the most-bought "Yes" options, there are Trump announcing the end of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by May 31 with 80% chance, and Trump announcing the end of Operation Epic Fury by June 30 with 73% chance.
How does Polymarket work?
Polymarket advertises itself as "the world’s largest decentralized prediction market," with its bets showcased as "shares" that allow users to bet on the outcomes of real-world events, such as politics, economics, and sports, with prices reflecting real-time, crowdsourced probabilities.
In the last couple of years, it has become one of the main forecasting tools (especially in US events and high-impact situations), with its bets predicting the outcomes of elections, sporting events, and even military operations.
This last thing, along with its pseudo-betting model, leaves the platform in "legal limbo" in most places where it's present, with many US states allowing it to operate because it functions more like a stock exchange than an actual betting site.
In Israel, the platform has no real regulation and has already opened several cases because of Israelis betting on the outcome of military operations. An Israel Air Force commander, along with a soldier from an intelligence unit, was among the people arrested for betting on this platform.
Additionally, there have been reports of Israelis in the IDF using inside information to bet on this platform, something that the military has called a "national security incident" and that is currently being investigated.