January 23, 2026 - Silver hit a nominal record high of $96.60 on January 23, 2026, bringing it within striking distance of the psychologically significant $100 barrier. Gold also surged to $4,933.27 per ounce, approaching the $5,000 milestone, highlighting a broader precious metals rally.
A Structural Repricing, Not a Bubble
Silver’s surge is driven by a convergence of structural factors: persistent deficits, industrial demand growth, Chinese export controls, and physical market stress. The market is not experiencing mere speculative hype - it’s witnessing a fundamental revaluation of a critical industrial metal.
Supply Crisis of Historic Proportions
From 2021-2025, silver experienced five consecutive years of structural deficits totaling over 820 million ounces - roughly a full year of global mine production. In 2025 alone, the deficit reached 95 million ounces. Global mined supply remained flat at 813 million ounces, constrained by the fact that 71% of silver is a byproduct of gold, lead, zinc, and copper production, limiting the ability to increase output in response to prices.
The physical market shows signs of panic. London silver lease rates spiked above 30% in October 2025, far above normal levels below 1%, while COMEX futures open interest fell more than 22% as shorts struggled to source physical metal. Major trading hubs are running low: Shanghai stocks hit a decade low, and London vaults were drawn down as metal flowed to Asia.
Investor Demand and ETFs
Exchange-traded silver holdings rose 18% in 2025, adding 187 million ounces to vaults. Once in ETFs, silver is effectively removed from industrial use, further tightening supply.
China’s Strategic Export Controls
On January 1, 2026, China introduced export restrictions, requiring state-approved licensing for large-scale exporters, effectively restricting 60-70% of the global supply to domestic use. Hundreds of smaller exporters who supplied global industrial users are now blocked.
This move positions silver as a strategic material, akin to rare earths. Major industrial users like Tesla immediately signaled concern, as a 50% reduction in Chinese exports could create deficits exceeding 5,000 metric tons annually.
Market Bifurcation
Export controls have caused a dramatic disconnect between paper and physical markets. On January 2, the Comex March 2026 contract closed at $72.27, while Dubai one-ounce silver coins traded at $99.93 - a 38% premium for physical metal, highlighting the severity of shortages.
Irreversible Industrial Demand
Silver’s industrial role is expanding rapidly:
Solar power: 232 million ounces consumed in 2024, with global capacity expected to quadruple by 2030.
Electric vehicles: Each EV uses 25-50 grams of silver, compared to 15-28 grams in conventional cars, driving millions of ounces in new demand annually.
AI and nuclear infrastructure: Tech giants require reliable power for AI clusters. Nuclear reactors and data center electrical systems further fuel structural demand.
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Paper Market Under Strain
The ratio of paper contracts to physical silver is 356:1. Persistent backwardation - spot prices above futures - signals buyers are paying premiums for immediate delivery, stressing the paper market.
Gold’s Parallel Rally
Gold’s rise to $4,933.27 reflects investor appetite for safe-haven assets amid inflation, geopolitical tensions, and dollar diversification. Like silver, gold is benefitting from central banks seeking to protect reserves while investors hedge against financial and geopolitical uncertainty. The proximity to $5,000 underscores strong bullish momentum for precious metals overall.
Analyst Forecasts
BNP Paribas suggests silver could reach $100 per ounce by late 2026 amid inflation and geopolitical risks. Bank of America raised its forecast to $65. Industry analysts like GoldSilver see $175 or more, while the inflation-adjusted 1980 record of $49.45 equates to nearly $200 today.
Why $100 Is Just the Beginning
Unlike other commodities, silver’s supply response is slow. Global mine output peaked in 2016 at 900 million ounces, falling to 835 million in 2025, with ore grades declining. New primary mines take 7–10 years to develop, so deficits will persist.
Meanwhile, industrial demand growth is sticky and irreversible. Solar, EVs, 5G, AI infrastructure, and nuclear power require silver - secular trends that will define the global economy for decades.
China’s export control gives it geopolitical leverage over 60–70% of refined silver supply, making price discovery political rather than purely economic. Central banks are diversifying reserves away from dollars, with silver gaining recognition as both a strategic and monetary asset. Even small allocations could have massive price implications.
The Path Forward
Silver approaching $100 is not a peak - it’s confirmation of a long-building reality: there isn’t enough supply to meet growing demand. The energy transition, electrified transport, AI infrastructure, and de-dollarization are permanent, and they all run on silver. Investors should view $100 as a waypoint, not a ceiling. Supply constraints, industrial demand, and geopolitical control suggest silver’s record run has only just begun.
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