Analysis: TA-25 could break new ground

It was a week of strong gains for both the TA-25 and the shekel.

It was a week of strong gains for both the TA-25 and the shekel, with the shekel hitting three-month highs, and the TA-25 close to reclaiming its all-time high. The movement verified technical indications earlier this week that both were poised to rally. Technical analysis is the study of trading based on previous performance, focusing exclusively on price movements rather than the fundamentals of the index/currency involved. There was a strong signal on Monday that the TA-25 was on the cusp of a strong short-term rally, after an equally sharp post-election fall, since the 807 level previously had provided a fair degree of support for the index. Over the following days, the TA-25 bounced back by nearly 5% to an intraday high of 844 on Wednesday. However, the 840 mark, which had been indicated as a difficult resistance level proved too tough, and the index pulled back slightly to close at 837. Meanwhile, the shekel also performed as predicted, continuing its strong performance, before its advance was capped when it met expected resistance at 4.60. Thursday, the shekel traded as high as NIS 4.594 against the dollar intra-day, before sellers came in and pushed the currency back to 4.596 - almost exactly 4.60. Against that backdrop, the shekel's rally now looks to be faltering at the 4.60 level and could well give back some of this week's gains, though it should not fall any further than NIS 4.65 to the dollar short-term, given indicated support levels. In contrast, the TA-25 looks as though it will break new ground. If it holds above 840 - a solid start to the week would leave it well placed to attack the all-time high of 855.