Under the protection of a nuclear umbrella, how long would it take Iran to move into the Gulf areas and "liberate" her fellow Shi'ites?
By DAVID BROGBrog-224-88new(photo credit: )
On November 7th, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad stepped up to a podium and proudly announced that his nuclear program had reached a significant milestone. According to Ahmadinejad, Iran now has 3,000 uranium-enriching centrifuges in full operation at his nuclear facilities. According to many experts, this number of centrifuges can produce enough enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon within one year.
As if his actions were not clear enough, Ahmadinejad emphasized that he intends to ignore the demands by the United Nations, the European Union, and the United States that he stop his nuclear enrichment program. "The world must know that this nation will not give up one iota of its nuclear rights," Ahmadinejad declared. "If they think they can get concessions from this nation, they are badly mistaken."
What is almost as frightening as this announcement itself is the fact that it did not lead the nightly news or make the front pages of the newspapers. Iran's steady march to nuclear weapons seems to be something most people would rather ignore. Perhaps it is simply human nature to ignore harsh realities. And perhaps it is also human nature to never feel the threats to others as deeply as we feel the threats to ourselves. For too many people, a nuclear Iran is an Israeli problem, not an American problem.
Such apathy demonstrates not only a lack of humanity, but a lack of intelligence. Would a nuclear Iran merely destroy Israel and then sit back and become a good citizen of the world? Iran has very clear expansionist designs on the oil-rich and militarily weak Gulf states that surround it. As the leading Shi'ite Muslim power in the world, Iran feels particularly entitled to those states which have Shi'ite Muslim majorities such as Bahrain. Saudi Arabia's oil-rich eastern provinces are also a Shi'ite majority, and these Shiites complain bitterly of oppression by Saudi Arabia's Sunni Muslim leaders.
Iran learned an important lesson from Saddam Hussein's 1990 invasion of Kuwait: Under normal circumstances, the United States will not allow the invasion of a Gulf state to stand. But nuclear weapons would change everything. Under the protection of a nuclear umbrella, how long would it take Iran to move into these areas and "liberate" her fellow Shi'ites? What would happen to the price of oil, and the US economy, once they did? If the destruction of Israel does not cause our neighbors to lose sleep, might the prospect of $200-a-barrel oil do the trick?
We need to wake up. Every day that passes means that President Ahmadinejad is one day closer to getting nuclear weapons. This is not the time for study, debate, or talk. This is a time for action.
The Bush Administration took an important step last month when it issued a new set of sanctions against Iran, its Revolutionary Guard, and other entities. There is compelling evidence that these sanctions are already curbing the flow of capital to Iran. We need more steps like this, both on the economic front and the diplomatic front. And most of all, we must never lose the sense of urgency about this issue. The clock is ticking. Don't you hear it?
For more of Brog's Blog, please visit www.cufi.org.
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