Nearly 40% of Israelis believe Iran won the war against the United States, according to a survey conducted between June 16 and June 22 by the Institute for National Security Studies and published last week.
The online survey, which collected responses from 805 Hebrew speakers and 152 Arabic speakers aged above 18, has a maximum sampling error for the total sample of ±3.17%, at a 95% confidence level.
The majority of respondents did not believe Israel emerged as the clear victor against Iran, with 43% saying the war ended without a decisive outcome. Just 15% believed Israel had won the war, compared with 37% who said Iran was the victor.
Coalition voters were significantly more likely to believe Israel won the conflict, with 30% saying Israel emerged victorious. Among opposition voters, by contrast, 52% believed Iran won the war, while just 3% said Israel was the successful party.
Israel’s Jewish population was slightly more inclined to view Israel as the winner (18%), compared to its Arab population (4%).
Majority of Israelis believe US-Iran conflict to reignite within a year
A slight majority of 68% believe that the country will renew hostilities against Iran in the coming year, a slight decline from the 73% who answered the same in May.
The overwhelming majority of the Israeli public was not in favor of the memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed by Tehran and Washington, an agreement US President Donald Trump has since nullified and described as a waste of time.
At the time of the survey, before Trump’s recent comments, only 8% of Israelis considered the MoU good for Israel, while 66% said it was detrimental, 15% said it was immaterial, and 11% said they didn’t know what to make of it.
Israeli-Arabs held slightly more positive views of the agreement, with 25% saying they thought it would be positive for the state compared to only 4% of Israeli-Jews surveyed.
On the subject of Trump, most Israelis said they felt the US president supported Israel conditionally, rather than being strongly committed to its security interests.
Meanwhile, 52% said they would support Israeli military action against Iran even at the cost of a confrontation with Trump, while 35% said they would oppose such action.
Some 61% of the Jewish participants said they would support military action against Iran even at the cost of a confrontation with Trump, compared to only 16% of the Arab respondents.
Only 26% believed that Israel’s security situation has improved compared to the period prior to Operation Roaring Lion, while 41% believe it has deteriorated, and 30% believe there has been no change.
Notably, less than a quarter (24%) of respondents assessed that Iran’s nuclear program was significantly damaged during the current campaign, while 69% believe it was either not damaged at all or only minimally affected.
At the time the survey was conducted, 80% of respondents said they were concerned about the security situation in Lebanon, 76% about Iran, 61% about the West Bank, and 57% about Gaza.
By comparison, significantly fewer respondents expressed concern about threats originating from Syria (32%) and Yemen (30%).
Only 20% surveyed had positive view on Israel's national security situation
When it came to issues of national security, 42% of Israel’s population rated the situation as either bad or very bad, with an additional 37% rating the situation as moderate.
Only 20% of respondents rated the national security situation as good or very good, a decline from the May survey, in which 26% rated it positively.
Notably, 41% of those who vote for the coalition responded that the situation was good or very good, while only 5% of opposition voters felt the same.
Vice versa, 61% of opposition voters felt the security situation was either bad or very bad, while only 20% of coalition voters said the same.
Israeli-Arab respondents also had a more pessimistic outlook, with 6% rating the situation positively, compared to 24% of Israeli Jews.