Netanyahu plays politics, assigning Erdan two diplomatic roles - analysis
As Israel's next ambassador to the United States and the United Nations, Gilad Erdan will be doing not one, but two highly sensitive jobs.
By HERB KEINONMinister Gilad Erdan speaks at the Jerusalem Post Conference(photo credit: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM/THE JERUSALEM POST)
In order to accommodate all the people, in both the Likud and Blue and White, that “need” to be ministers, the new Netanyahu-Gantz government expected to be sworn in on Thursday will swell from 23 ministries today, to at least 32.To create jobs for all the ministers, certain ministries that dealt with more than one narrow subject under the last government will be divided up.For instance, the Jerusalem Affairs Minister will no longer also be the Environmental Protection Minister, as was the case under the outgoing government, but there will be a separate Jerusalem Affairs Ministry and a Ministry of Environmental Protection. The Internal Security Minister will no longer also be the Strategic Affairs Minister, because strategic affairs will now merit a ministry of its own. So too, the Intelligence Ministry will not be subsumed under the Foreign Ministry, but will be its own fiefdom, as will the Ministry of the Development of the Negev and Galilee and the Ministry of Science and Technology.In other words, in a number of cases, two ministers will now be required to do the job hitherto performed by only one.In light of the new government’s trend toward dispersing – not consolidating – responsibilities, it came as a bit of a surprise Monday evening when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the appointment of Gilad Erdan as Israel’s next ambassador to the United States and the United Nations.Not since Abba Eban over 60 years ago (between 1950-1959) has one man filled both posts. And for a reason: both posts are sensitive and highly important and demand the appointee’s full attention and focus. As capable, talented and effective as Erdan might be, this double duty would tax the skills of even as accomplished a diplomat as Henry Kissinger.Then why do it? Why send one man to do a job that two are overtaxed to perform well? Because of politics.Sending Erdan to Washington and New York reduces the logjam inside the Likud for ministerial positions, and gives Netanyahu an additional high profile ministry to dole out to one of his allies. Erdan is a senior minister who would have had to be given one of the Likud’s top ministries. Now that he is off to America, he is taken care of, and a senior ministerial post that would have gone to him can be given to someone else.But what could entice Erdan, who has aspirations to take over as head of the Likud once the Netanyahu era ends, to want to go to the US for the next number of years, away from all the political action? He has turned down the UN offer in the past, so how can it be sweetened up now, how can it be made to seem like an upgrade?How? By throwing the ambassadorship to Washington into the mix. This way, when the race to succeed Netanyahu commences, someone like Israel Katz – who also sees himself as a potential Netanyahu replacement and who is likely to get the Finance Ministry – will not be able to pull rank on Erdan, who will be able to say that in addition to his previous senior ministerial appointments, he was also ambassador both to the US and the UN.It is clear that his arrangement serves the political interests of both Netanyahu and Erdan, but does it serve Israel’s interest? Is Israel better served by having one ambassador as the envoy both in Washington and New York – as capable as he may be – or is the national interest better served by having one devoted ambassador in Washington, and another at the UN?New York and Washington are almost equally as far apart as New York from Boston. Yet Israel would never dream of having only one consulate general serve both cities, because those jobs are full time jobs that demand full time attention and energy. Yet now it is willing to have one man serve as the head not of two consulates, but of two of Israel’s most important embassies in the world.In the best of times, a full time envoy is needed in both places. Representing Israel in Washington means non-stop meetings with Administration officials, as well as with House and Senate representatives and staff people. It means media appearances, lectures and overseeing the country’s sprawling embassy staff in the most important capital in the world.And representing Israel at the UN means much more than giving a speech that ends with a quote from Isaiah once a year in the General Assembly or Security Council. It means building close relationships with the ambassadors of Colombia and South Korea, Belarus and Sri Lanka, so that when Israel needs to promote something in one of the world organization’s myriad committees – or, more likely, when it needs to block something – the ambassador will have whom to turn to.And that’s all in normal times. But when Erdan takes over in New York, expected this summer, and in Washington – sometime after the US election in November – he is unlikely to be dealing with normal times.In Washington, he may be taking over after the US electorate shows US President Donald Trump the door, and Joe Biden and the Democrats may take over the White House. Whomever is Israel’s ambassador then will have the herculean task of repairing ties with a Democratic party still stinging from what it views as the disrespect Netanyahu showed president Barack Obama by going over his head to speak against the Iran deal in Congress in 2015, and very annoyed by the bear hug Netanyahu gave Trump over the last few years.Rebuilding those bridges will not be easy, and will demand scores of meetings and a constant presence. Erdan’s chore will not be made any easier by the fact that under the coalition agreement, Gantz will be able to choose his own ambassador to Washington when he rotates in as prime minister in late 2021, which means that if Erdan takes up his post in November, he may only serve 11 months before being set to be replaced (unless Gantz opts to keep him on). Few if any Israeli ambassadors have ever had such a short stint in Washington. No sooner will Erdan become a known figure inside the Beltway, then he will disappear to New York.In New York, too, the job of Israeli ambassador to the UN will become doubly important – and doubly difficult – if Jerusalem annexes some part of the West Bank as Trump’s “Deal of the Century” gives it the leeway to do. Such a move would trigger a barrage of international condemnation and diplomatic counter-actions that could go on for months, with the epicenter being in the UN. Israel will need a full time ambassador there on the ground all the time to do what he can to soften the blow.This new double-dipping ambassadorial arrangement is problematic for another reason as well: it projects a sense of disarray and lack of seriousness. Netanyahu has never hid the contempt he has for the UN, so appointing only a half-time envoy there may aptly reflect what he thinks of that body. But to Washington?What message does it send to Washington that Israel is not sending an ambassador able to devote himself full time to the Israel-US relationship, and that this halftime envoy may only be there for 11 months?Ron Dermer, the current ambassador who has been in Washington for seven years and who is as close to the prime minister as any Israeli ambassador has ever been to his boss, would be a tough act to follow for anybody. It will be even more difficult for someone who – because he will be moonlighting at another extremely demanding job some 450 kilometers away – will be unable to devote himself entirely to the goings-on in America’s capital.
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