Why does Michaeli's win matter? - analysis

Although Labor has elected its leader 13 more times since 1992 no candidate won two primaries in a row – until Monday.

 Labor leader Merav Michaeli is seen at the Knesset in Jerusalem, on June 13, 2022. (photo credit: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM/THE JERUSALEM POST)
Labor leader Merav Michaeli is seen at the Knesset in Jerusalem, on June 13, 2022.
(photo credit: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM/THE JERUSALEM POST)

In 1992, Yizhak Rabin defeated Shimon Peres and two other contestants in the first Labor leadership primary election open to the entire party membership.

The result: Labor earned a reputation as the party that “devoured its leaders,” according to Israel Democracy Institute expert Prof. Ofer Kenig.

Although Labor has elected its leader 13 more times since then no candidate won two primaries in a row – until Monday.

Incumbent Labor Party leader Merav Michaeli’s sound defeat of lawyer and party secretary-general Eran Hermoni broke that losing streak. Michaeli won Labor’s previous election in January 2021, and won again on Monday in a lopsided 82.48% to 16.6% victory.

Michaeli began her victory speech by comparing Labor to Israeli long-distance runner Lonah Chemtai Salpeter, who on Monday won bronze in the world championships. “Like Lonah, today we proved that the Labor party is also in for a very very long-distance run,” she said.

Indeed, the two words that Michaeli repeated most throughout her speech were “continuity” and “stability”

Michaeli’s message was clear: Labor’s decline since the 1990s happened in part because it had not been able to rally around a clear leader. Winning twice in a row proves that she is that missing leader, and that it is time for Labor to begin to grow again.

“The party is leaning toward fixing the mistakes of the past and is beginning to work differently,” Diaspora Affairs Minister Nachman Shai told The Jerusalem Post.

“One of the things that tripped up Labor in recent years has been the internal disputes, and the inability to arrive at agreements and work together,” Shai said.

Michaeli did indeed lift the party from rock-bottom. She refused to join then Labor leader Amir Peretz in the Netanyahu-led rotation government in 2020. When that government fell apart, and with the party’s future uncertain, Michaeli was elected party leader and in the 2021 election received a surprising seven seats. Part of what contributed to her success was Michaeli’s status as a feminist icon, which attracted many women voters.

Furthermore, Michaeli’s faction was relatively stable during its tenure over the past year. Unlike most of the other coalition parties, none of its MKs threatened to quit the coalition or created a major crisis.

Michaeli also managed to maintain favor among her faction, which is not a small feat. On the eve of the election every current minister and MK from her party signed a letter in her support.

Shai credited the makeup of the current Labor list as a contribution to its success.

“This group, comprised of three veterans – Merav, [Public Security Minister] Omer Bar Lev and myself, and five newcomers, some young, created a nice combination of people who came to work and not to fight each other,” he said.

Despite these achievements, one must remember that Michaeli is still relatively new as party leader and the coming months will not be easy.

“Facing the chaos in the political field, especially in Meretz, it was important to us to appear as a party that projects stability, continuity and self-confidence,”

Diaspora Affairs Minister Nachman Shai

Labor has been polling at the 5-6 seat mark. But with Zehava Gal-On expected to take over as Meretz leader after announcing her return on Tuesday, that number may become 4-5, with the election threshold uncomfortably within sight.

It is not yet clear how Michaeli’s flat refusal to merge with Meretz will affect its standing.

On one hand, Michaeli’s decisiveness and confidence could attract more voters. Very few parties so far have simply denied any mergers, and in doing so Michaeli is projecting strength and independence.

This is reminiscent of the support she received for going against the grain and refusing to join the Netanyahu government.

Competition: Zehava Gal-On

On the other hand, in Gal-On Michaeli faces tough competition. Gal-On, a feminist icon herself, was known for her scathing speeches against right-wing and pro-settlement elements. If  Meretz under Gal-On consistently passes Michaeli in the polls, Michaeli may eventually have to request a merger, but under far less favorable conditions.

Indeed, Michaeli’s emphasis on stability and continuity had another purpose: To highlight the instability in Meretz, according to Shai.

“Facing the chaos in the political field, especially in Meretz, it was important to us to appear as a party that projects stability, continuity and self-confidence,” Shai said.

“A party that is teetering at the edge of the electoral threshold is not stable,” he said.

Shai expressed his personal affection towards Gal-On, but reiterated Michaeli’s stance.

“I hope that Meretz passes the electoral threshold, but the two parties have their own identities. We will survive and Meretz will survive, and each will do its part,” he said.

“Last time when we looked out for Meretz, they ended up taking seats from us. This time we are looking out for ourselves,” he added.

The sum of votes that each party can bring separately is larger than what they can bring together, Shai claimed.

“We [Labor] can bring votes from Yesh Atid and Blue and White, and Meretz can take votes from the Joint List or other supporters of the Left who were not felt in the previous election,” he said.

“Together, if we maintain our strength and add to it, our bloc will have a larger chance of preventing the return of the previous coalition,” he said.