The political impact of explosions in Iran - analysis

Nobody paid the price for sleeping on the watch. The likely reason, the sources said, was because Tehran was interested in downplaying the operation.

By HERB KEINON
Iranian armed forces members march during the ceremony of the National Army Day parade in TeIranian armed forces members march during the ceremony of the National Army Day parade in Tehran, Iran September 22, 2019hran, Iran September 22, 2019 (photo credit: IRANIAN PRESIDENCY WEBSITE/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)
Iranian armed forces members march during the ceremony of the National Army Day parade in TeIranian armed forces members march during the ceremony of the National Army Day parade in Tehran, Iran September 22, 2019hran, Iran September 22, 2019
(photo credit: IRANIAN PRESIDENCY WEBSITE/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)
A funny thing happened in the Iranian political, security and intelligence establishment after the Mossad whisked thousands of secret documents chronicling Iran’s nuclear program out of the country in 2018 and displayed them before the world.
Nothing.
One might have thought that an investigation would have been initiated and that heads would have rolled.
This was a major embarrassment for the Islamic Republic. Its greatest enemy (or second greatest, after the US) penetrated Tehran and emptied out the archives. If the Zionist entity could do that – and in this case there was no ambiguity or hesitance on Jerusalem’s part to take credit – then what else could they do; where else could they operate?
Yet, according to diplomatic sources, this did not lead to a major shake-up in the Iranian political, intelligence or military establishments. Nobody paid the price for sleeping on the watch. The likely reason, the sources said, was because Tehran was interested in downplaying the operation, keen on giving off a sense that this really was no big deal, that no secrets were lost, and that the Zionists were making much ado about nothing.
Now, after five mysterious explosions in Iran over the last two weeks, including one at a missile factory and another – the most significant – at the Natanz nuclear facility, it will be telling to see whether there will be any major shake-ups inside Iran as a result.
On Monday, some 120 Iranian legislators, out of 290, summoned President Hassan Rouhani for questions in a move that – if Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei lets it go through – could lead to impeachment. The stated reason is the plunging rial and the high cost of basic goods in the country. But it could also conveniently be a way to place responsibility on someone for the recent string of embarrassing explosions.
After the series of mysterious attacks, the Iranians on Sunday admitted that the fire at Natanz last week caused serious damage and set the country’s nuclear program back by months. This was not just an accident or a gas leak, as the Iranians had said about the other incidents. This was a hit against high-speed centrifuges used to enrich uranium at a level that can be used as fuel for an atomic bomb.
“It’s possible that this incident will slow down the development and expansion of advanced centrifuges,” Behrouz Kamalvandi, spokesman for the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, was quoted as saying on Sunday. “There were advanced equipment and precision measurement devices at this site that were either destroyed or damaged.”
And while that type of setback will not be enough to stop the nuclear march, it does have a chilling effect and sows insecurity in the hearts of the Iranian leadership, as well as the citizenry.
In 2016, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took the stage at the United Nations General Assembly and showed satellite photos of three sites in Beirut used by Hezbollah to hide Iran-backed precision-missile production facilities.
“Israel knows what you are doing,” he said. “Israel knows where you are doing it, and Israel will not let you get away with it.”
Whoever was responsible for the Natanz explosion, as well as the other recent incidents, seems to be sending the same type of message, though this time through means much more lethal than some aerial photos.
According to Raz Zimmt, an expert on Iran at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv, the string of incidents is having an impact on the Iranian public, especially following the killing of al-Quds commander Qasem Soleimani in January, the subsequent Iranian downing of a Ukrainian airliner, the coronavirus that is wreaking havoc in the country and the economic crisis.
These events add to feelings of insecurity among the public and to blaming the government for being unable to provide basic security. It matters less to the public how these incidents continue to occur, but rather that they keep occurring and that the government seems helpless to stop it.
“Fingers are pointed at the regime that it does not provide its citizens with security,” Zimmt said in a podcast on Monday.
This adds to tension between the regime and the public, a tension that has reached a boiling point. It also adds unwanted pressure on the government already under intense pressure as a result of the US economic sanctions and the coronavirus.
This makes the government feel insecure, and insecure leaders under pressure, Zimmt said, may feel compelled to respond. And that response could either come against perceived domestic threats or threats from abroad.