Reza Pahlavi, the man who was crown prince of Iran for the first 19 years of his life, is convinced that – as he put it to a mass gathering of expatriate Iranians in Munich, Germany, on July 26 – “the Islamic Republic is clearly in its death throes.”
Pahlavi, now aged 65, was a trainee fighter pilot at a US air base in Texas when his father, Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, faced by an army mutiny and violent public demonstrations, went into voluntary exile on January 17, 1979. Two weeks later Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the spiritual leader of the Islamic Revolution, took control of Iran.
For the past 46 years, Reza Pahlavi has campaigned continuously to achieve the overthrow of the Islamic Republic, and then to return to Iran to help create a new modern, liberal democracy that respects human rights, freedom, and equality. He believes that now, in the summer of 2025, the stars have aligned in their courses, and that the chances of doing so have never been more favorable.
A historic moment
“A historic moment has arrived,” he said. “The Islamic Republic is weaker and more unstable than at any time in its 46-year history. An unprecedented opportunity has opened for the Iranian people to topple this anti-Iranian regime.”
On July 26, he convened in Munich the most diverse gathering ever of opposition activists and groups in order to set out his vision of how to bring democratic change in Iran, and to mobilize the action necessary to achieve it. His Convention of National Cooperation to Save Iran brought together the most diverse anti-regime coalition ever assembled. More than 500 exiled Iranians assembled, some representing political organizations at odds with one another, while others included prominent dissidents and activists, entrepreneurs, academics, artists, and athletes. Attendees came from the diverse array of Iran’s demographic and socioeconomic backgrounds, which included different religious, linguistic, ethnic, and tribal groups. They spanned the ideological spectrum of Iranian politics from Left to Right.
A highlight of the gathering was an audio message from several political prisoners being held in Greater Tehran Prison, announcing their support for Pahlavi to lead the transition to a democratic and secular Iran.
Pahlavi told his audience that the build-up of defections from within Iran, which include defections of high-ranking regime officials, was gathering pace. “We are in communication with elements inside the system who are actively accelerating the fall of the Islamic Republic,” he said, claiming that the regime is terrified, “fearing the increasing defection of military, security, police, and government personnel.”
Pahlavi is far from promoting the idea of overturning the revolutionary regime by force of arms. He has rejected the option of an armed coup. His chosen path is to mobilize resistance to the rule of the Islamic Republic in general, and of Ali Khamenei in particular, both within and outside Iran, to a point when the regime simply implodes.
“My goal,” he told the Munich assembly, “is for Iranians to be able, within a short time and through free elections, to hand over the reins of power to an elected government. As I have repeatedly stated, I do not seek political office or position. I want to create a space and structure so that those who want to serve the nation and restore Iran’s lost greatness can present themselves and their plans in a democratic process to the people’s vote.”
Not that he rejects the idea of he himself leading a new, democratic Iran, either as an elected president or prime minister or, if events pan out that way and a majority of Iranians want it, as shah in a new constitutional monarchy.
Speaking in Paris three days before the Munich convention, Pahlavi had a direct message for Khamenei. “Step down,” he said, “and if you do, you will receive a fair trial and due process of law, which is more than you have ever given any Iranian.”
He then turned to other senior regime officials and said, “Those of you whose hands are soiled with the blood of the Iranian people, you too, will have to face justice. But we will not repeat the mistakes in other failed transitions. To those of you who are loyal to the Iranian nation and not the Islamic Republic, there is a future for you in a democratic Iran if you join the people now. The choice is yours to make.”
He said that increasing numbers of men serving the Islamic Republic were reaching out to him saying they wanted to participate in the movement toward national salvation. To coordinate this development, Pahlavi has established a formal channel for any military, security, or police personnel breaking with the regime to contact the organization directly.
“For those patriotic members of our armed forces,” said Pahlavi, “the time is now to join the nation. If you do, I will make sure your service to Iran is not forgotten and is celebrated.”
Pahlavi told the Munich gathering: “Ali Khamenei must know his regime is crumbling. Many of those around him despise him. A large number of IRGC members are looking for a way to jump ship. And the overwhelming majority of the people detest him and his regime.”
He enumerated the regime’s failures. “In this sweltering summer, the Iranian people face hours of electricity, gas, and water cuts. Inflation is out of control, and the economic system is paralyzed.” After years of destabilizing the Middle East through proxy wars, the Islamic Republic dragged war into Iran itself, and then suffered the humiliation of defeat.
Pahlavi is well aware that his efforts to encourage resistance to the regime and promote support for a democratic future for Iran, impressive as they are, could be frustrated if the Islamic Republic is boosted by international interests. At his media conference in Paris on July 23, he issued an appeal to the wider world.
“To the international community, now is the moment to stand with the Iranian people. Do not repeat the mistakes of the past. Do not throw this regime a lifeline. You are right to be concerned about stopping nuclear weapons and securing regional stability. Only a democratic transition in Iran can ensure that these goals are achieved and are lasting. Take for example the destruction of the Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow enrichment facilities. Yes, this has diminished the regime’s domestic nuclear enrichment, but it does not diminish the regime’s intent to acquire and use nuclear weapons. The regime, enraged and emboldened, will be seeking revenge and can acquire nuclear weapons from other rogue regimes like North Korea. The destruction of the regime’s nuclear facilities alone will not deliver peace, but the path I offer can. So work with us to ensure a peaceful transition. Now is not the time for hesitation. Now is the time for principled action from each of us.”
However, several countries are indeed likely to seek to preserve the Iranian regime, or at least avoid its sudden collapse.
Russia, for example, regards Iran as a key strategic partner in countering Western influence in the Middle East. It benefits from arms sales and nuclear cooperation with Iran.
China is an even stronger partner. Iran is a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, aligning it with China’s broader geopolitical architecture, and is a vital energy supplier under its Belt and Road Initiative. It is a counterweight to US influence. In 2021 China signed a 25-year strategic cooperation agreement with Iran, involving massive investment and military collaboration.
Then a number of European powers – countries like France, Germany, and the UK – are interested in reviving the nuclear deal with Iran (the JCPOA) or in reaching similar nuclear arrangements in order to prevent nuclear escalation. A new regime in Iran, even if nominally democratic, would inherit the old regime’s nuclear capabilities. As an unknown entity, what would it do with them?
So, despite Pahlavi’s wishful thinking (“the fall of this regime is inevitable”), the Iranian regime remains deeply entrenched, and – unfortunately, in many people’s opinion – seems far from the verge of collapse. Pahlavi still has a long, difficult road to travel.■
The writer’s latest book is Trump and the Holy Land: 2016-2020. Follow him at www.a-mid-east-journal.blogspot.com.