Whether or not you support Ehud Barak, Israel's most decorated soldier is no idiot. When the former chief of staff, defense minister and prime minister announced on June 26 that he is returning to politics and forming a new party, it was because he had read the political map and reached the strategic realization that he could change the electoral balance in favor of the center-left camp that opposes Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the September 7 election. But he may be wrong. “What matters most is the size of the political bloc, not the size of a party,” Barak told a news conference at Beit Sokolov, the home of the Israel Journalists Association in Tel Aviv. According to a Channel 13 poll released soon after his announcement, Barak's party – called the Israel Democratic Party in English – could win six seats and bring the anti-Netanyahu bloc to 61 seats and the pro-Netanyahu bloc to 52, not counting Yisrael Beytenu's seven seats, which its unpredictable leader, Avigdor Liberman, could take either way. Liberman is now pushing for a national unity government. Barak infused new energy into the upcoming election after Knesset Speaker Yuli Edelstein unveiled a plan to cancel them. Although the prime minister said he was considering the plan – which requires the support of 80 MKs revoking its previous vote to disperse itself – it now appears that the election will go ahead as scheduled. While Netanyahu may blame Liberman for his inability to form a government with a 65-seat majority after the April 9 election, it was the Likud that initiated the Knesset vote on the night of May 29 to dissolve parliament and call for a do-over election. While the Likud may have later regretted the move, what at first appeared to be an unnecessary, costly and lackluster ballot that would not inspire apathetic voters to go to the polls has now become much more interesting. Barak has brought in new candidates, such as former chief of staff Yair Golan and Yitzhak Rabin's granddaughter, Noa Rothman. There is also a chance that he could ultimately form an alliance with the new leaders of the Labor Party and Meretz, Amir Peretz and Nitzan Horowitz, though they may not pose a real alternative to Benny Gantz's Blue and White opposition party – which is doing all it can to close ranks amid a public feud between at least two of its leaders, Moshe Ya'alon and Yair Lapid. In addition, argues Shimon Sheves, a former political adviser who served under Rabin, Barak's party could draw votes from Blue and White. This may ultimately split the center-left vote and harm rather than help that bloc, Sheves says. That's where the right-leaning camp might see a window of opportunity. The decision by the radical Otzma Yehudit party to end its partnership with Rabbi Rafi Peretz's Bayit Yehudi party enables new alliances on the Right. Bezalel Smotrich's Union of Right-Wing Parties might now join forces with the New Right – this time, perhaps, under the leadership of Ayelet Shaked rather than Naftali Bennett. Finally, the Arab parties' decision to again run together may potentially give them significantly more political power if they can get their voters to the polls. With Netanyahu facing a pre-indictment hearing in three cases of alleged corruption just two weeks after the election, and the growing calls from within the Likud for him to groom a successor if he is forced to step down, the September 17 vote could herald a new era in Israeli politics. Although much can change before then, it could be one of the most exciting and pivotal elections in Israel's 71-year history.
