One month, three No's, zero credibility

If Israel is intent on maintaining the illusion that it never needs to say 'Yes,' that it will retain friends internationally, and that it doesn't have a partner for peace, September might turn out to be far more than a mild diplomatic tremor.

By ALON LIEL
PA President Mahmoud Abbas at the United Nations 311 (R) (photo credit: REUTERS/Chip East)
PA President Mahmoud Abbas at the United Nations 311 (R)
(photo credit: REUTERS/Chip East)
The excessively-hyped September 2011 has finally arrived and looks as if it won't let us down. It will go down as a crucial turning point in Israel's diplomatic history alongside October 1973 and November 1977.
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No doubt the biggest event will be September 20's UN General Assembly vote regarding the recognition of a Palestinian state. But before that, expect to witness further deterioration in the ties between Jerusalem and Ankara as well as critical developments in the Israeli-Egyptian crisis. These occasions will each be punctuated with a resounding "No" on Israel's part.
The first "No" will be directed at Turkey: Israel will continue in its refusal to apologize for the casualties aboard last year's Mavi Marmara, which will inevitably lead to recalling its ambassador from Ankara.
It also looks as though Israel has no intentions to apologize to its southern neighbor for the accidental killing of 3 Egyptian security personnel in the aftermath of the terror attack in Eilat 2 weeks ago. This particular "No" may likewise result in the recall of Israel's ambassador to Cairo.
These two important Israeli ambassadors will be reunited in The United Capital to await September 20 which will culminate with the UN's historic vote and Israel's third and final "No."
This time Israel's "No" will come in the form of a vote against the establishment of a Palestinian state. At this point it seems likely that 120 states will vote yes while 30-5 will go the other way, leaving an additional 35-40 that will abstain from voting.
This result will mark a comfortable victory for the Palestinians, and one that may finally clarify certain points for the Israeli public: The first is that US opinion does not reflect the rest of the world's and that the US vote isn't the be all and end all. The second is that Israel's isolation in the Middle East looks set to spill over to other parts of the world.
Public opinion at home doesn't attribute enough importance to international standing and neither does the government, which all too often acts in accordance with the erroneous premise that national pride takes precedence over global satisfaction. But the future of Israel will be riddled with more requests from other countries, and following this September's 3 "No's," Israel risks losing more friends on the international scene unless it learns to say the word "Yes" every so often.
The world is fed-up with Israel's persistent claim that it "wants peace but has no partner." It seems to be a pathetic attempt to pull the wool over the international community's eyes while the real position the government holds is along the lines of, "Israel can still survive without peace. It is doing well economically and militarily, and even in the diplomatic sphere the friends it cares about are still backing it - especially the wonderful Americans. "
While the Middle East teeters on shaky ground with riots and revolutions and rulers deposed, Israel remains the only safe and sturdy patch of ground in the region. What a joke. Perhaps the diplomatic earthquake this September will finally shake the Israeli government and public out of that illusion.
The writer, a former chargé d’affaires in Turkey and ambassador to South Africa, was director-general of the Foreign Ministry between 2000 and 2001. Today he lectures at Tel Aviv University, Hebrew University and the Interdisciplinary Center, Herzliya.