Senior advisors to US President Donald Trump would prefer if Israel struck Iran first, believing that such a move would provide better optics and help muster voter support for a US strike, Politico reported on Wednesday, citing two people familiar with the discussions.
“There’s thinking in and around the administration that the politics are a lot better if the Israelis go first and alone and the Iranians retaliate against us, and give us more reason to take action,” the sources told Politico.
The motivation behind the idea centers on Iran’s retaliation, the sources claimed, as “more Americans would stomach a war with Iran if the United States or an ally were attacked first.”
According to them, the line of thought around Trump is “we’re going to bomb them [Iran].”
However, other considerations are also being taken into account, according to the sources, including the risk of potentially depleting the US’s munition stockpiles, which could give China an opening to take Taiwan. Potential American casualties are another consideration.
“If we’re talking about a regime-change scale attack, Iran is very likely to retaliate with everything they’ve got," Politico quoted one of the sources as saying. "We have a lot of assets in the region, and every one of those is a potential target, and they’re not under the Iron Dome."
"So there’s a high likelihood of American casualties. And that comes with lots of political risk.”
Next round of US-Iran talks to commence in Geneva
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is set to meet Trump’s envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, in Geneva on Thursday for what has been described as a “decisive” meeting.
The talks are expected to determine whether there is still a path to an agreement between Tehran and Washington, or whether the likelihood of a US military strike will rise significantly.
International Atomic Energy Agency head Rafael Grossi and Oman's Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi are also expected to participate.
Sources familiar with the contacts between Iran and Washington told The Jerusalem Post that while the chances of reaching an agreement are slim, the possibility cannot be ruled out.
Before departing for Geneva, Araghchi said Iran would never abandon its nuclear activities “for peaceful purposes.” He also warned that if the United States attacks Iran, American bases in Arab countries would become “legitimate targets.”
Amichai Stein contributed to this report.