The statement from Minister of Sport Ahmad Donyamali on Wednesday that Iran could not take part in a World Cup being co-hosted by the United States offered the clearest indication yet of the potential for a first withdrawal from global soccer's showpiece event in the modern era.
While that has not officially happened yet, minds at soccer's global governing body, FIFA, must now urgently address the prospect of having to replace the Iranians in the tournament kicking off in the US, Mexico, and Canada in early June.
Donyamali said it would be impossible for Iran to take part after air attacks launched by the US and Israel on February 28 killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, triggering a region-wide conflict that shows no sign of abating.
While it always seemed counterintuitive that Iran would take part in a World Cup while at war with one of the co-hosts, FIFA was still clearly banking on Team Melli lining up for their first group game against New Zealand in Los Angeles on June 15.
Only a few hours before Donyamali's statement, FIFA chief Gianni Infantino trumpeted an assurance from Trump that Iran was "welcome to compete in the tournament in the United States."
FIFA at liberty to call up replacement nation
A withdrawal would be governed by Article Six of the World Cup regulations, which, while stipulating a series of financial penalties for such a move, also states that FIFA would be at liberty to call up any nation it chooses to fill the void.
"There's no modern precedent for this and, according to FIFA's own tournament regulations, they have full discretion to do whatever they want in the case of a team withdrawing," James Kitching, FIFA's former Director of Football Regulatory, told Reuters.
"That means, for example, a team that withdraws wouldn't have to be replaced by a team from the same confederation, or even replaced at all. Whether either of those scenarios would be politically tenable is a different question.
"The tournament regulations also provide disciplinary sanctions for any federation whose team withdraws. However, if Iran withdrew for any reason related to this current conflict, I doubt FIFA would impose any sanctions given the circumstances."
The Iranians qualified for a fourth successive World Cup by topping Group A in the third round of Asian qualifying last year, and a replacement from the world's most populous continent would make most sense, even if that is not as straightforward as it may seem.
Travel freeze complicates Iraqi preparations
Iraq is due to participate in the intercontinental playoffs in Mexico this month for a spot at the finals, while the United Arab Emirates, which lost to the Iraqis in an eliminator in November, has also been mentioned as a potential candidate.
The travel freeze in the Middle East caused by the conflict is impacting Iraq's ability to get to Mexico and prepare for their match against either Bolivia or Suriname on March 31.
Iraq coach Graham Arnold has proposed that FIFA postpone that fixture until closer to the finals, saying that would be fair to the Iraqis and allow the Iran situation to play out further.
"Let Bolivia play Suriname this month and then a week before the World Cup, we play the winner in the US - the winner of that game stays on, and the loser goes home," Arnold told the Australian Associated Press on Monday.
"In my opinion, it also gives FIFA more time to decide what Iran is going to do. If Iran withdraws, we go into the World Cup, and it gives the UAE, who we beat in qualifying, the chance to prepare for either Bolivia or Suriname."
FIFA has yet to comment on Donyamali's statement, while a source at the Asian Football Confederation said it "is closely monitoring the situation and remains in contact with FIFA" over the potential replacement of Iran.
"Matters relating to the World Cup fall under FIFA's remit," the source said. "At this stage, it would be premature to speculate further."
World Cup places are highly coveted by the confederations; however, it is likely that the AFC would lobby hard for the replacement to come from Asia.
With Europe's final participants in the World Cup also decided at the end of March, Kitching believes FIFA will not make any firm decisions until early April.
"I would expect a decision is not going to be made until after the final playoffs are finished and for FIFA to take a pragmatic and consultative approach to the situation," he said.
Trump says it is not appropriate for the Iranian soccer team to be at the World Cup
US President Donald Trump said on Thursday the Iranian men's national soccer team was welcome to participate in the 2026 World Cup, but said he believed it was not appropriate that they be there "for their own life and safety."
"The Iranian National Soccer Team is welcome to the World Cup, but I really don’t believe it is appropriate that they be there, for their own life and safety," Trump said in a post on Truth Social.