Reports that Saudi Arabia has refused the US military access to its airspace could significantly complicate Washington’s plans should it decide to attack the Islamic regime again, a Gulf expert told The Jerusalem Post on Thursday.
US President Donald Trump’s announcement of Project Freedom on Sunday morning angered Riyadh, leading to Saudi Arabia informing the US it would not allow the US military to fly aircraft from Prince Sultan Airbase or fly through Saudi airspace to support the effort, two American officials told NBC News on Wednesday.
This reportedly led Washington to decide to stop escorting vessels across the Strait of Hormuz.
It is understood that Project Freedom would largely depend on the consent of regional nations to use their airspace. Saudi Arabia is critical for allowing aircraft to base there, while other Gulf states are needed for both overflight and naval logistics.
Ahmed Khuzaie, a Bahraini analyst and a managing partner at the political consultancy firm Khuzaie Associates LLC, explained to the Post that Riyadh’s decision could unfold in two possible ways.
Firstly, the move could pressure Washington into engaging more seriously with mediation discussions in Pakistan.
“This would strengthen Riyadh’s image as a responsible power, reduce the risk of direct US-Iran clashes, and potentially create space for a negotiated settlement,” Khuzaie explained.
The other possible outcome would be that the Islamic regime, which has already restarted attacks on the United Arab Emirates, could become emboldened if it interprets Riyadh’s decision as a sign that the American-led coalition is weakening.
“That perception could encourage Iran to harden its bargaining position or expand its regional provocations, betting that Gulf states will continue to restrain Washington,” he warned.
Riyadh shifting Washington-Gulf relations
On a deeper level, Riyadh’s decision would suggest there is a shift in the status of Washington-Gulf relations.
“Saudi Arabia is signaling that Gulf consent is no longer automatic in US military ventures. This recalibration complicates the war’s trajectory, as Washington must now balance its operational urgency with the political realities of Gulf autonomy,” he continued.
“The outcome hinges on whether Saudi restraint is leveraged as a diplomatic anchor or inadvertently creates strategic space for Iran.”