Iraq’s new prime minister will face impossible task

The government and Iranian-backed militias have responded with a crackdown, killing 500 and injuring 20,000

By SETH J. FRANTZMAN
A demonstrator carries an Iraqi flag as he walks near burning tires blocking a road during ongoing anti-government protests, in Baghdad, Iraq January 19, 2020. (photo credit: KHALID AL MOUSILY / REUTERS)
A demonstrator carries an Iraqi flag as he walks near burning tires blocking a road during ongoing anti-government protests, in Baghdad, Iraq January 19, 2020.
(photo credit: KHALID AL MOUSILY / REUTERS)
Iraq may soon have a new prime minister, as Mohammed Tawfiq Allawi has been selected by President Barham Salih, according to reports.
Allawi released a short statement but he already faces protests and troubles. A former communications minister, he appears ineffectual and doesn’t have much street credibility. Iraq is in the midst of several massive crises.
Allawi is the cousin of former Iraqi political leader Ayad Allawi. The more well-known cousin was once thought of as the secular hope of an Iraq after the US invasion of 2003.
Instead, he was pushed aside by pro-Iranian sectarian Nouri al-Maliki. Maliki gobbled up power and sidelined Sunni Arabs and Kurds, eventually fueling the rise of ISIS and leading the Iraqi army to collapse in 2014.
Mohammed Allawi was known in 2007 and 2012 for resigning from Maliki’s government. He opposed political interference in his Communications Ministry and corruption.
So far so good. But Allawi is opposed by the protesters who see him as an example of the corrupt old political class. Protests have rocked Iraq since October. The government and Iranian-backed militias have responded with a crackdown, killing 500 and injuring 20,000.
The largest political party in Iraq is led by Muqtada al-Sadr, a Shi’ite cleric. He was thought to be moving towards a less Iran-centric stance and more Iraqi nationalism in 2018. He had supported the protests in 2019.
The protests targeted Iran’s consulates and Iranian-backed militias. The militias, called Popular Mobilization Units, which are part of the government’s paramilitary forces, gunned down protesters. This included gunmen from Asaib Ahl al-Haq, Badr and Kataib Hezbollah.
The militias also targeted the US amid rising US-Iran tensions. They fired rockets a dozen times at bases where US bases are located and at the Green Zone near the US embassy in Baghdad. On December 27, an American contractor was killed. Two days later, the US struck five Kataib Hezbollah locations.
In response, Hadi al-Amiri of Badr led pro-Iranian protests to the US embassy in Baghdad and stormed the entrance to the compound. The US ordered an airstrike that killed Iranian IRGC Quds Force leader Qasem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis of Kataib Hezbollah in response.
This is the situation the new Iraqi prime minister must deal with. Iraq is a bubbling volcano.
Iran launched ballistic missiles on January 8 that gave 64 American soldiers traumatic brain injuries or concussions. Sadr has formed an alliance with the pro-Iranian leaders like Amiri now to oppose the US presence. He led almost a million people to protest on January 24. He withdrew his support for the other protests.
Now he wants a sit-in at the Green Zone until the next government is formed. Similar to his 2016 sit-in at the Green Zone, Sadr knows how to do theatrics. But he doesn’t want to lead. Neither does Amiri, who is close to Iran. Instead they want  a weaker Prime Minister who most people are not familiar with.
A survey of Allawi’s known statements and activities reveals little about him. He was a decent minister of Communications apparently. He didn’t come onto the radar of  the Americans, who rarely mentioned him in diplomatic dispatches.
He was primarily known for resigning. He doesn’t seem to have much else going for him, except that he isn’t controversial. He may be accepted by the Sunni Arab and Kurdish sections of Iraq. The Sunni areas need rebuilding after the ISIS war and the Kurdish autonomous region wants a deal on budgets and other issues.
How will Allawi or whoever becomes prime minister navigate the unfolding disaster? The security forces have shown they are not in control of Iraq in recent months. ISIS remains a threat.
The militias, backed by Iran and playing an increasing role in politics and the police, are involved in extrajudicial killings. Armed men gun down protesters and snipers shoot people.
It is clear that this is at the behest of the militias because when Sadr organized his protest no one got shot. Neither did anyone oppose the protest at the US embassy led by Amiri.
That means the Fatah Alliance, the second largest party in Iraq and made up of politicians linked to the PMU militias, have a kind of lock on power. But they don’t want to hold power themselves.
Sadr wants to balance everyone, by contrast. President Barham Salih, who is Kurdish, has threatened to resign rather than pick someone the protesters oppose. But he has been threatened by the militias as well, bashed for meeting US President Donald Trump in Davos.