Libya in spotlight as Russia and Turkey haggle – analysis
Meanwhile, Egypt, Greece and the UAE are seeking broader cooperation against Turkey.
By SETH J. FRANTZMANMembers of Libya's internationally recognised government flash victory signs after taking control of Watiya airbase, southwest of Tripoli, Libya May 18, 2020.(photo credit: REUTERS/HAZEM AHMED)Libya, which is in the midst of a civil war between the Turkish-backed Government of the National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli and the Egyptian-backed Libyan National Army (LNA) in Benghazi, is in the spotlight as Moscow and Turkey both posture to shore up their role in the country. Deputy Prime Minister Ahmed Maiteeg of the GNA went to Moscow on Wednesday whereas Khalifa Haftar, who runs the LNA, went to Cairo.There is talk of a ceasefire, but the GNA has been on an offensive in the last weeks. Bolstered by Turkish drones and with better intelligence and electronic warfare assets, they broke the back of the LNA’s Russian-made air defense. In response, Russia sent warplanes on May 26. Much of what is going on in Libya and what the real goal of Ankara and Moscow is, remains shrouded in mystery. Turkey claims it wants to help the GNA defeat the “warlord” Haftar to secure energy rights off shore. Russia pretends to be an almost neutral observer, even though it backs Haftar. Meanwhile, Egypt, Greece and the UAE are seeking broader cooperation against Turkey. This pits US partners against each other, and leaves clarity as to what Moscow thinks it can get in the end. Moscow doesn’t mind endless frozen conflicts, such as Ukraine, so Libya may be next.Turkey is encouraging the GNA to shore up its position by re-taking Tripoli International Airport. It already helped the GNA retake the strategic Watiya airbase. Recent videos have shown LNA units being ambushed. Turkey is also increasing its air supply and ships being sent near Libya. Turkish Air Force assets have also been spotted off the coast by open source intelligence gatherers online.In Cairo, Haftar is consulting with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. Egypt may want to back Haftar, but they don’t seem to want to commit a lot of sophisticated military assets. Turkey is an impassioned foe of the Sisi government, having backed the previous Muslim Brotherhood dominated government. This likely creates an existential threat in the eyes of Sisi, not wanting Turkey near his border. But the main issue will be what Russia does next. There could be more discussions in Europe, based on the previous Berlin model for a ceasefire. This may hinge on France and Turkey also discussing Libya. With the US distracted by protests and the pandemic, what happens next in Libya is being determined by all these players.
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