Trump Doctrine appeared to be one of setting America on a more isolationist course, Trump Doctrine 2.0relied on crisis to keep the world guessing, but what is Trump Doctrine 3.0?
By SETH J. FRANTZMANUS President Donald Trump holds up a Bible in front of St. John's Episcopal Church, June 1, 2020. (photo credit: REUTERS//TOM BRENNER)
US President Donald Trump pushed for greater use of the military in the US against rioters amid massive protests. This could be the Third Act denouement for the Trump administration, the moment at which the administration tries to force the issue with increasing chaos on the ground in the US, between pandemic and protest. But it raises a question: What happened to Trump’s foreign policy?In the first year and a half of the administration, the Trump Doctrine appeared to be one of setting America on a more isolationist course, ending the years of George H.W. Bush’s “new world order.” The goal here was to walk away from foreign agreements, call into question the need for NATO and transatlantic relationships and fight against trade agreements that had ostensibly harmed the US trade deficit.There was a sense as well that the Trump Doctrine also boiled down to doing the opposite of the Obama administration and reversing course on issues partly to show that various status quo issues could be upended. For instance, Trump tried to make a deal with North Korea. He also hammered away on China, assuming that a deal or a trade war might suffice. On the Israeli-Palestinian issue, he wanted to make radical changes that could not be undone. Moving the embassy, tearing up the Iran Deal and shutting off funding for UNRWA or UNESCO were ways of doing this.Trump’s goal was also to reverse course on Syria. First, aid would be cut off to the Syrian rebels, and then Trump wanted to leave Syria. He said he would leave early on but needed to bomb the Assad regime to show that he would enforce a redline that the Obama administration had not. By the fall of 2018, he was done with Syria and said it was time to go. Trump jettisoned his first foreign policy team, Tillerson-McMaster, and held on to Mike Pompeo. He brought in John Bolton and then chucked him out. Trump initially relied on former military brass Mattis-Kelly-McMaster, but tired of the generals around the throne. In the end, the pillars of team Trump were his family, rooted in the Kushners, and Pompeo. The rest would be mostly unmemorable men like Mark Esper, who replaced the barely remembered Patrick Shanahan.By late 2019, the administration had begun to thrive on Trump Doctrine 2.0, a doctrine that relied on crisis to constantly keep the world guessing. There would be a crisis with Turkey over a pastor or S-400s, there would be crisis with Venezuela and then a crisis in Syria as Trump blinked and let Turkey attack US partners. There would be the May 2019 crisis with Iran and then the June downing of the US drone. “Locked and loaded,” the administration would threaten the Iranians again and again. Eventually, Trump acted and killed IRGC head Qasem Soleimani.The Soleimani killing was trademark Trump Doctrine: Do what the enemy does not expect and what all the cautious diplomats say will inflame the region. That’s what makes the enemy fear you, like they feared Michael Corleone in The Godfather: Kill them when they least expect it. After all, Trump’s main worldview is that of a New Yorker who grew up in the 1950s and 1960s, the era that Mario Puzo depicts in The Godfather.But what is Trump Doctrine 3.0? Where does this all go. Former president Barack Obama’s legacy was ripped apart like taking a buzzsaw to a cabinet. America’s enemies do fear the “crazy person,” a doctrine that former president Richard Nixon had also embraced to deal with the North Vietnamese. Isolationism is back. The Europeans will have to go it alone without the US, and the West is alone. Turkey, Iran, China and Russia are rising and displacing the US in Syria, Libya and elsewhere.Is the 3.0 version the final denouement where the administration looks inward to provoke the final, great crisis at the end of the reality show drama before the election? Is it like King Lear, where it all comes together in sudden tragedy and victory? This is as yet unclear, but what is clear is that the foreign policy goals are in tatters. There is no great deal with North Korea. China seems to have won the trade war. Turkey browbeat the US. Syrian President Bashar Assad is slowly winning. The Russians got what they want in Syria and Libya. US allies are on the backfoot. Sanctions on Iran are barely holding and Venezuela’s regime is still eating Salt Bae, the famed Turkish chef’s recipes.It remains to be seen what comes next. As Israel slouches toward annexation, the Trump administration’s “Deal of the Century” is likely not a done deal, but it may redraw almost a half century of foreign policy. That may not be an accomplishment if it doesn’t lead anywhere. But the goal was to hand Israel the keys and let Jerusalem decide. In that, Trump has succeeded. Where else the doctrine has succeeded is unclear.
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