A couple of obscure special elections in Texas and a new Fox News poll could have a greater bearing on whether US President Donald Trump launches his pre-emptive war on Iran than anything happening in the Persian Gulf. If he does decide to order the bombing, American consumers and Israeli civilians could pay a very high price.
The president said he sent an “armada” – a carrier task force – to the Middle East to muscle the Islamic Republic into making a nuclear and ballistic missile deal with him, or else. Trump and his advisors are said to believe that, facing deep economic problems and growing public unrest, the Tehran regime is more vulnerable than ever and with enough push it could fall over.
There is no evidence of any "day after" planning by the administration in the event that the government of the Islamic Republic falls. Nor is there an organized Iranian opposition that could take over.
The US and Iran haven’t been speaking directly. Turkey is the latest interlocutor, but that may change when presidential envoy Steve Witkoff meets with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Istanbul on Friday.
US and Israeli bombs and missiles apparently hadn’t “completely and totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program in last June’s 12-Day War, as Trump repeatedly boasted, so he’s going back. The New York Times and others report that there is little evidence Tehran has made any progress in rebuilding its enrichment facilities or advancing toward producing a nuclear weapon. So, Trump wants to finish the job and get a signed deal – deals are his self-professed specialty – assuring that Iran will abandon its nuclear ambitions and limit its missile muscle.
The missiles are a higher priority for Israel, since every part of the Jewish state is within range of Iran’s current ballistic arsenal, while a nuclear warhead, if they decide to go for it, is likely a few years away.
Moreover, the Iranians have said that if America attacks, they won’t confine retaliation against Israel to military and government sites but aim for Israeli population centers. That means Israeli citizens would pay a tragically high price for a war that Israeli and Saudi leaders are privately urging Trump not to start.
In addition, as many as 40,000 US forces are stationed within Iran’s striking range; the declared targets include other US friends and allies such as Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
What's the Texas connection?
So, what does that have to do with Texas? It’s 7,420 miles (approx. 12,000 km.) from Tehran to Houston but only 976 miles (approx 1,600 km.) from the Iranian capital to Tel Aviv. Iran’s longest-range operational ballistic missile, the Khorramshar-4, is believed to carry a 4,000-pound (approx. 1,800 kg.) warhead about 1,500 miles (approx. 2,400 kg.).
In a special election for a seat in the Texas state senate, Democrat Taylor Rehmet trounced Republican Leigh Wambsganss. It was a humiliating defeat for Trump, who had given the GOP candidate his “complete and total endorsement.” Trump had won the district by 17 points in 2024; Rehmet won by 14, a startling 31-point turnaround.
In a race to fill a long-vacant congressional seat in the Fort Worth area, Democrat Christian Menefee won a special election that will cut the Republican majority in the House to 218-214, which means the GOP can afford to lose only one vote to pass anything in a party line vote. (A tie vote loses.)
A Fox News poll released Monday showed Democrats lead Republicans nationally by six points, 52-46, leading up to this fall’s congressional elections, the widest margin of any party in the history of the survey. The broadcaster sees “massive gains” for Democrats this fall, largely thanks to issues like affordability, health care, helping the middle class, and taxes.
Republicans are strongest on national security and immigration, although the administration’s handling of the latter issue is provoking widespread bipartisan disfavor. Trump retains a strong lead among white evangelical Christians, white voters with no college degree, and rural voters.
These Fox numbers come in the wake of other recent Democratic victories in state and local elections, particularly governor races in New Jersey and Virginia, that are widely seen as a repudiation of Trump’s policies and a harbinger of a blue wave in November.
Trump’s MAGA base is unhappy, says former US representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, once a Trump stalwart who broke over the Epstein files and foreign policy. The base, rallying around the America First banner, which also calls itself "American First," is essentially isolationist and drawn by Trump’s promise to stay out of foreign wars, not starting more, she said.
Trump, she said, has spent too much time focusing on foreign policy instead of the problems at home. Green, of “Jewish space laser” fame, was particularly upset about “war on behalf of Israel” and “innocent people in Gaza…murdered so they can build some new real estate development.” Trump has framed Iran as a threat to Israel, less so to the United States.
In event of an American attack, Iran has said it will retaliate against American interests and Israel. The war is likely to immediately disrupt the global oil supply, sending the price of gasoline and heating oil skyrocketing during winter. Things can go from disruption to disaster if Iran decides to use its mines, fast boats, and drones to close the 21-mile-wide Strait of Hormuz, a choke point for shipping.
Iran shares the Persian Gulf with oil producers Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar. On the other side of the Arabian Peninsula is the Red Sea, where Iran's proxies, the Houthis in Yemen, have shown they’re capable of blocking the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, cutting off the Suez Canal.
We may not know when the war begins until Secretary of War Pete Hegseth blabs the plans to a reporter on a Signal group chat.
Trump has been bragging a lot about falling gasoline prices at home. He gets his facts wrong, but he’s right about the trend. War with Iran will quickly send them in the opposite direction.
When bombs start going off in Iran, young Americans may die and gas prices are sure start going up across the United States, and that is not the kind of thing Trump will want to crow about in an election year.
The writer is a Washington-based journalist, consultant, lobbyist, and former legislative director at the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.