When Kabul was toppled by the Taliban this week, it was a double victory for the jihadist organization. It had won the physical war, regaining control of Afghanistan, and it had won a psychological war. Make that present tense: It continues to be successful at multiple levels in the psychological battle.
Incredibly, the Taliban – a murderous, extremist, tribal-based terrorist movement – is managing to portray itself as a reasonable and moderate force. Well, it’s all relative. Compared to ISIS, it might come across as “moderate” but you’d have a hard time convincing Afghan women of that. If you could find them, that is.
Women, as has been well noted, swiftly disappeared from the streets. And those who were out covered themselves up from head to toe. They didn’t need an order or fatwa from the Taliban. The psychological pressure worked immediately.
US President Joe Biden seems to have been taken by surprise by the swift Taliban takeover. That’s one of the frightening aspects of the affair. It reminded me of the way Barack Obama pulled forces out of Iraq creating the conditions that allowed for ISIS to take over huge swaths of the Middle East, having belittled them as a bunch of terrorists in beat-up Toyota trucks. Or Obama’s blind faith in the democratic process when Hosni Mubarak’s regime in Egypt was ousted during the Arab Spring. Even without CIA and diplomatic briefings and the input of think tanks and academics, it was clear what would happen. There was only one body that was large enough and well-organized enough to assume power – the Muslim Brotherhood. Hence, Mohammed Morsi took control for a year marked by torture and murders.
As Israel has learned the hard way, how you leave an area is no less important than the timing. Twice Israel has carried out unilateral military withdrawals from territory it controlled: from Lebanon in 2000 and from the Gaza Strip in 2005. Both times, the results were not what the Israeli leaders responsible – Ehud Barak and Ariel Sharon, respectively – had hoped for. Nature abhors a vacuum; terrorist organizations, on the other hand, are happy to exploit one. Hezbollah on Israel’s northern border and Hamas on the southern border stepped in. Today, these groups operate what have been called “terrorist armies.” The Taliban will follow their example – very well equipped with US military hardware.
Terrorist organizations (and their sponsors) who watched Israel pulling out of Lebanon drew the conclusion that terrorism works. It is no coincidence that the Second Intifada began shortly after the Israeli unilateral pullback from the southern Lebanon security zone. Similarly, when Israel uprooted the Jewish communities and removed all Israeli presence from the Gaza Strip, it was perceived by terrorists as a victory. This enabled Hamas to beat the Palestinian Authority in elections the following year and then violently complete its takeover of the Gaza Strip.
The result has been felt in the thousands of rockets that have been fired on Israel from Gaza since then – sometimes escalating into mini-wars, as happened in May.
Footage of Hamas members in Gaza celebrating the fall of Kabul is a sobering reminder that from Hamas’s viewpoint this was another win by Islamic forces intent on setting up a caliphate abiding by Sharia law – a concept Hamas fully supports. Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh has already called the Taliban’s de facto leader Abdul-Ghani Baradar to congratulate him for ending the US “occupation” in Afghanistan.
Hezbollah, which started the Second Lebanon War in 2006 and periodically launches rockets on Israel, is also monitoring what happens next to the Taliban. More significantly, Iran, the sponsor of terrorist proxies in Lebanon, Gaza, Yemen and elsewhere, is watching closely.
For Israel, the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan is a sobering reminder that ultimately the Jewish state can rely only on itself. Although Israel and the US are veteran and strong allies, Israel alone can protect its own interests and needs. No foreign or international peacekeeping force will ever defend the State of Israel the way the IDF does.
THERE ARE many unknowns regarding Take II of Taliban rule in Afghanistan. It’s not clear if they are really more pragmatic or just more aware of the importance of good PR. It remains to be seen how they deal with women and religious minorities – and with terrorist organizations including its ugly sibling al-Qaeda and its rival ISIS-K.
The Taliban were willing to let Osama bin Laden operate from Afghanistan before 9/11, the date 20 years ago the world changed forever. When terrorists sent the Twin Towers crashing down it was part of the multi-pronged attack on the heart of the US and the West. It was this atrocity that precipitated the US invasion of Afghanistan two decades ago.
If the Taliban rein in al-Qaeda and ISIS it will be for their own purposes and needs.
A new Taliban-controlled government will present challenges in the international arena. Is the world ready and willing for a Taliban member to attend sessions of the United Nations in New York? Admittedly, the UN’s standards are low. Yasser Arafat gave his infamous speech-cum-threat there, stating: “I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter’s gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand.”
The borders of the Middle East have been increasingly extended and blurred.
The Taliban doesn’t need to expel its opponents. They’re fleeing for their lives as the chaotic scenes at Kabul’s airport demonstrate. The comparison to the fall of Saigon is inevitable – and heartbreaking. The footage of people falling to their deaths as they were unable to continue clinging to airplanes taking off was horrific. Pictures of bodies of refugees washing up on beaches will likely follow. (A plea by animal welfare organizations to help evacuate shelters before the Taliban completed their takeover illustrates an often overlooked aspect of the plight of dogs under Islamist rule.)
The surge of Afghan asylum seekers in the West is inevitable. As always, it doesn’t provide a real solution. Mass migration can only be slowed by solving the problems in the source country – the opposite of what the US did this week in Afghanistan.
Although the Taliban are Sunni and the Islamic Republic of Iran is Shi’ite, there are areas in which they have mutual interests. Don’t rule out some measure of continued cooperation. The tension between the Arab and non-Arab Muslim countries might also play a role.
Much has been written about the winners and losers in the latest chapter of the history of Afghanistan and the Taliban. Undoubtedly, the women who sought education, equality and basic human rights have lost a lot. Misogyny is built-in to the Taliban system.
This might cause confusion in the West, where the US and others are racing to rebuild relations with Iran – as Iran itself races to build The Bomb and flagrantly abuses the rights of women, homosexuals, and religious and ethnic minorities.
Hypocrisy comes in many forms.
In a piece on Spiked! titled “Big Tech’s staggering double standards,” Paddy Hannam noted that the Taliban has an active account on Twitter where it was able live-tweet the takeover of Afghanistan while former US president Donald Trump remains banned. Whatever your opinion of Trump, that is something to ponder, especially as the Taliban have learned the importance of social media. They might want to create a caliphate worthy of the Dark Ages, but they are well aware of the uses of modern media to spread their message – and as a tool of psychological warfare.
Damn the Taliban. They are creating another hell on earth. And the road to that hell was paved with good, but naive, Western intentions.
liat@jpost.com